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Topic: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"  (Read 2047 times)

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Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« on: April 10, 2006, 11:44:19 AM »
I started a housing bubble blog - http://housingpanic.blogspot.com - before I left for the UK (and after I sold my overpriced condo in Arizona!). 

I've kept blogging (just a hobby) since I've landed over here, and even though we're US focused, I do post on some of the international bubble stories, and we get some readers posting from the UK and elsewhere in Europe.

If you think we're in a bubble over here too - please feel free to stop by and post.

I continue to be amazed at the UK property ponzi scheme (oops - I mean 'housing ladder').   I've seen some absolute dumps for $1 Million +, which seem like they shouldn't be more than $200k or so.  Time will tell...

Cheers

Keith


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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2006, 02:29:45 PM »
This really confuses me..  We were in San Diego for the boom and we watched condos in our neighbourhood jump from 138 000 in 1998 to 600 000 in 2004.  Oh how we wished we would have bought in 1998!

Now we're totally out of the housing market.  I'm counting on a bust to get us back in!
Riding the rollercoaster of life without a seat belt!


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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2006, 05:52:43 AM »
the day everyone goes back to buying a house for the purpose of living in it, the better. economically the world (well, the west anyway) in many facets of life (health care, education etc) has come far since WWII, but housing is not one of them.

i am a professional in my 30s w/ approaching 4 yrs of experience since leaving graduate school (let alone undergraduate school), and i cannot currently (and cannot foresee ever) being in a position to the purchase the 3 bed 1 bath council bungalow that my grandparents (one working class father and a mother/homemaker) resided in during the 1950s. even my father, an italian immigrant w/ few english speaking skills at the time (he was a waiter) was able to buy his first home (which he is still in) before the age of 30!

if the bubble bursts and house prices drop by at least 30-50%, now that would be great.


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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2006, 06:29:00 AM »
I hear you on that one!!! It's grad school that's the killer!!! My father bought his first house for 30 000 (dollars) in 1968 on one income of 20 000 per year.  They had three kids and two cars and lived in a fairly affluent neighbourhood.  10 years later, they bought a second house in the same neighbourhood and rented out the first.  Still on one income. 

It is very hard for my parents to relate to our reality - things are very different.  I read an article last year that put in very concise terms, that yes, we are making less than our parents.  We are the first generation in a long while who will not be more successful than our parents.  So yes, I would love to see the housing bubble burst!
Riding the rollercoaster of life without a seat belt!


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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2006, 12:41:55 PM »
This is a very big debate as it affect so many of us!

Historically, if you look at the house price levels throughout the last few decades you'll see a pattern emerge. Alot of it ties also into bigger aspects such as the economy, inflation, market forces etc. House prices do seem to go up and then come down over what appears to be a 10-12 year(ish) cycle. It's not of course to say it will 'definitley' happen but around now is the time for a 'pricing correction' - The governments are trying hard not to let that 'correction' be a quick slump but rather a gradual process.

Thing is, even though the price 'rises' have kinda levelled off, the level they're at at still ridiculous/insane. Only in the last few months have I seen my local property paper show things like 'price reduction' and or 'priced to sell' indicating properties aren't selling at those higher levels.

Overall, I'd say the best thing would be for salary levels to match cost of living levels in the UK, some may argue that house prices would need to come down by quite alot in order to get a better balance, others would say we need a substantial increase in salary. Truth is, it requires a bit of both. I personally don't want to see my rental apartment lose £50 grand in value, so I'm not in favour of a 'bubble burst' !

Seeing as no one knows what will happen and when, for now 'other' means of long term quality of life & financial increases have to be thought of and implemented.

I'm working on my 'plan' - you workin on yours?!!

Dennis! West London & Slough UK!!


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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2006, 02:23:48 PM »
the day everyone goes back to buying a house for the purpose of living in it, the better. economically the world (well, the west anyway) in many facets of life (health care, education etc) has come far since WWII, but housing is not one of them.

i am a professional in my 30s w/ approaching 4 yrs of experience since leaving graduate school (let alone undergraduate school), and i cannot currently (and cannot foresee ever) being in a position to the purchase the 3 bed 1 bath council bungalow that my grandparents (one working class father and a mother/homemaker) resided in during the 1950s. even my father, an italian immigrant w/ few english speaking skills at the time (he was a waiter) was able to buy his first home (which he is still in) before the age of 30!

if the bubble bursts and house prices drop by at least 30-50%, now that would be great.

tenthplanet, i couldn't agree more. the problem, i mean insanity, of the UK housing market is the amount of people buying second/third homes to let. and now gordon brown is providing tax breaks to incenitivize this behaviour even more! it's crazy. i'm in a pretty similar situation to you - in my mid-30s, graduate school educated and married, but cannot get onto the housing ladder. well, correction, i could get onto the ladder if i was happy to live in either a hell-hole *or* a tiny flat. after searching for months for a place to buy, my hubby and i decided to move to the states in a year or so after our baby is born. i feel really ambivalent about it all, but just know that the quality of life i want is not possible in this country.

<rant over>


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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2006, 05:09:30 PM »
i'm not in the UK right now, but in the US. what is absolutely amazing to me is that, at least where i am, in the southwest house prices here, while they have increased, are still very very reasonable, esp. to a brit like me. there are many many young singles and young couples (often w/ just one working parent and a few kids, and many not even 30yrs of age) who actually own - yes own - their own detached two level 3/4 bedroom homes, you can even by a new two level 3 bed condo in a nice area for about $130,000! i've seen decent houses w/in 10 minutes of downtown salt lake city (which is a beautiful area in my op) for less than $200,000.  combine this with the fact that in terms of purchasing-power salaries are higher here, plus taxes (at least in the lower income bands) are indeed much lower, w/ many deductions available for homeowners and familes.

these are not necessarily greatly educated folk i'm talking about. many have just a high school diploma to their names. the average earnings here for someone w/ merely a high school diploma 10 yrs later is circa $32,000. thus, that condo is still affordable. the same condo in the UK (at least in the south) would be the equivalent of $400,000! those here w/ bachelors degrees and graduate degrees are doing even better, purchasing homes in the $200,000-300,000 range as a first-buy - these, where i am, are large 3 level 5 bed 3 bath homes atop hills.

many of my clients, young guys in their 20s who tend to do meth now and again and work manual labor, own homes that as a professional i could not buy in the UK.

i don't think salaries will go up much in the UK, since it's not a salary problem, it is a supply and demand problem, but one which i believe is the fault of the government.

everywhere i look here in the southwest US they are not just building houses, but entire cities, and nice pleasant affordable cities. you get tax breaks if you own a home, as well as if you have a family.

in the UK do you think there just aren't enough homes because contractors aren't building them? there are plenty of contractors ready to start building. in a very free and liberal market supply will always grow to match demand, but that's not happening in the UK because the gvt is refusing to grant the necessary planning permits to build not just homes, but whole new towns entire.  at the same time they are allowing too many newcomers into the country from places like eastern europe and the middle east and asia.  there are not as many tax incentives to get married, start a family, own a home - and yet being party of a family and owning property are very important on a pyschological level in any society - are very important to a sense of stability and community, giving people "stakes" in society.

there we have,  a ltd supply of housing, gvt restrictions on needed growth, out-of-control immigration, bad tax policies - too high w/ few breaks etc. it's a recipe for serious deprivation in the years to come - you cannot increase immigration while at the same time not increasing the housing supply, it will lead to squalor. as always, the free-er market system we have in the US comes up trumps - gvt regulation and taxation invariably fails.

most people may argue it's a space issue. two responses. first, i don't believe it is. there is plenty of space in the UK to add plenty of smaller towns of say 50,000-150,000 people. the problem is that our populations are "concentrated" in too many tight narrow urban areas. they've done computer generated graphs etc where they spread out the entire population over the geographic mass which is the UK, and it's quite a welcome surprise, and yes, a lot greener too! second, if that is the case, then we need to stop immigration alltogether.

i personally would like to move back to the UK, i miss my family, and even came close to returning this year, but it's not the lifestyle i want. there are many people who say home ownership isn't everything, but while i can live w/ paying 700UKP per mth in rent for now while i'm still young, what happens when we're 60, 70, or 80 even, and don't have the money to keep on paying rent? my parents are approaching retirement age and currently are almost to the end of their mortgage - they pay 150 UKP per month and it will be over ib 3 yrs - that's the advantage of home ownership, plus the fact that they now own 250,000 UKP worth of asset.

sometimes, just sometimes, methinks there may be some socialistic agenda going on in the background, but then i just snap myself out of it and say i'm being stupid. it just seems that many things are geered to disenabling people - gvt business tax and reg which leads to fewer jobs, less entrepreneurship, lower salaries - coupled w/ higher taxes w/ few breaks - gvt reg (restrictive planning permission and liberal immigration) which results in high housing demand and expensive housing --- all in all, it means that big government then needs to the step in and "help" people via social programs which in turn justify higher taxes and more gvt regulation.







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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2006, 05:54:55 PM »
sometimes, just sometimes, methinks there may be some socialistic agenda going on in the background, but then i just snap myself out of it and say i'm being stupid. it just seems that many things are geered to disenabling people - gvt business tax and reg which leads to fewer jobs, less entrepreneurship, lower salaries - coupled w/ higher taxes w/ few breaks - gvt reg (restrictive planning permission and liberal immigration) which results in high housing demand and expensive housing --- all in all, it means that big government then needs to the step in and "help" people via social programs which in turn justify higher taxes and more gvt regulation.

an interesting perspective.  indeed what makes this worse is that 'those in the middle', ie not well-off and not poor are struggling and not helped by the government.

also, i think a big component of the housing issue is that people are buying property because they either don't have or don't have faith in pensions. i think if the government actually addressed that issue, it would take a lot of pressure of the housing market.

if/when i make my return to the states, i'll be looking in the colorado area. not sure what the market is like there, but know like the southwest they've got loads of space!

best
mimsy


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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2006, 09:06:47 PM »
for news on the colorado market, visit my blog - http://housingpanic.blogspot.com - lots of recent threads on that one as that's where I want to head next too

cheers

keith


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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2006, 01:44:17 AM »
I'm getting a little nervous about the housing market - houses costing 6 times the average salary?!?  That's nuts.  I'd love to find an actual house (not maisonette, not flat) that we could afford on just one salary.  But I like to keep my costs in line with what the "experts" recommend.  That would be 35% of your take home salary on housing (all housing expenses). 

Having said that, my sister-in-law and her husband make £21,000 per year and they have a nice little house - same with my husband's cousin and his wife.   I guess people just make it work.


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Re: Housing Bubble - otherwise known as the "property ladder"
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2006, 04:27:06 AM »
very few people manage to keep their housing budget to 50% of net earnings, let alone a third.

the average salary in southeast england (for a single adult) is circa 25K, the average house (not flat/maisonette) price is circa 200K (8x salary!): the salary is too low (gvt's fault) and the house price is too high (again, gvt's fault).

on 25K you'll net (after tax etc) about 1500 per month - most people w/ mortgages dedicate about 1000-1200 of that in housing expenses.


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