UK Citizenship and 'Discretion' for Absences

I'm looking for some advice from any of you well-seasoned people. I'm trying to figure out when to apply for citizenship now that I have ILR.

If I apply after March 25, my days absent will be 282 and 80 days within the last 12 months.
If I wait until after May 10, my days absent will be 271 (SO close!)
Otherwise, I'll have to wait until after July 18 when it's down to 257

I guess I want to know if 'absences normally disregarded' means...no problem, I can go ahead? How risky is it to presume upon their discretion? Do they take into account what the travel was for/that it was with my husband? I'd like to apply as soon as I can and get the whole thing DONE, but I don't want to take a silly risk, either!

Has anybody seen successful/unsuccessful cases of exceeding the 270? What's your advice? TIA!!

Here's the documentation I'm going from:

In Booklet AN, pages 7-8

To satisfy the residence requirement you should not have been absent for more than 90 days in the last 12 months. If you are married to or in a civil partnership with a British citizen the total number of days absence for the whole 3-year period should not exceed 270.

There is discretion to disregard absences in excess of the limits. This discretion is outlined in the following tables:

Normal permitted absences in QP - 270 days
Total number of absences normally disregarded - 300 days

Normal permitted absences in final 12 months of your qualifying period - 90 days
Total number of absences normally disregarded - 100 days

Then in the guidance for UKVI here https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/665387/naturalisation-as-a-British-citizen-by-discretion-v2.0EXT.pdf it says:

Absences during the qualifying period
Where an applicant has spent more than the 450 day for section 6(1) applications, or 270 days for section 6(2) applications, outside of the UK during the qualifying period you must consider exercising discretion if they meet the other requirements.

Where the applicant exceeds the permitted absence by 30 days or less you must exercise discretion unless there are other grounds on which the application falls to be refused.

I'm looking for some advice from any of you well-seasoned people. I'm trying to figure out when to apply for citizenship now that I have ILR.

If I apply after March 25, my days absent will be 282 and 80 days within the last 12 months.
If I wait until after May 10, my days absent will be 271 (SO close!)
Otherwise, I'll have to wait until after July 18 when it's down to 257

I guess I want to know if 'absences normally disregarded' means...no problem, I can go ahead? How risky is it to presume upon their discretion? Do they take into account what the travel was for/that it was with my husband? I'd like to apply as soon as I can and get the whole thing DONE, but I don't want to take a silly risk, either!

Has anybody seen successful/unsuccessful cases of exceeding the 270? What's your advice? TIA!!

Here's the documentation I'm going from:

In Booklet AN, pages 7-8
Then in the guidance for UKVI here https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/665387/naturalisation-as-a-British-citizen-by-discretion-v2.0EXT.pdf it says:

Are you counting your travel days (the day you left the country and the day you returned) as absent days?

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Assuming your count is correct, when it's a case of only a few months, why even take the chance? I would just wait it out.

Make sure you apply on a day that you were in the UK exactly 3 years before.

Are you counting your travel days (the day you left the country and the day you returned) as absent days?

Yep, I haven't counted travel days...

Assuming your count is correct, when it's a case of only a few months, why even take the chance? I would just wait it out.

Make sure you apply on a day that you were in the UK exactly 3 years before.

I guess I'm impatient! Also, if I could do it end of March, it would be before the fees potentially increase. It just sounds like it would be ok from the guidance...but maybe it's too good to be true?

Another thing I'm thinking about is that I might be out of the country for 6 or 7 weeks in September and October, and wouldn't want to miss the ceremony booking/attendance window (some say must be booked within 21 days of receiving the letter, some say booked and attended within 3 months).

Yep, I've got a spreadsheet of all my trips will definitely apply on a date that I was in the UK 3 years earlier. 

It's 3 months.

https://www.gov.uk/citizenship-ceremonies

Honestly, I’d wait. I was in a rush to apply in December, and according to another board the UKVCAS applications have barely begun to be approved. If you wait, hopefully any teething problems will be sorted.