House prices in your area

DtM,
There's a difference between waiting it out in 2000 vs now.  In 2000 the market was on the rise.  I bought my Boston condo then because like you said you can't predict when the market will top out so I thought it wise to buy for long term.  I still have that one and probably wont sell it for 10-20 years.

However, the difference now is the market is on the way down.  You can't predict the exact moment the market will turn back up, that's why you wait until it does.

In short, I agree I wouldn't wait around while the market is on the way up, but I would wait if it's on the way down. 

To each his own method though, I'm certainly no pro.

Hi MbMasters,

Yep, I see what you mean about the current Slump in the US housing market, it's why people like me are looking over with great interest.

The danger is of course, that maybe the US will do something similar when the markets were down in the doldrums here? maybe they'll cut interest rates there too? so the market turns around quicker? there's no way of ever telling when the market has bottomed out - so while you wait for the next 3-6 months to a year seeing if those $80,000 properties will go down to $70,000, they might stick there and then you see them at $85K then $90K a few monhts after that - which is exactly what happened here (meaning you'll kick yourself for I shoulda bought i shuoulda bought!).

In either case, watching for when the markets are going up or down to buy, you can pull your hair out wondering 'if its bottomed or topped out' - the best bet is to evaluate your current scenario and buy if you can afford it and the associated costs.

there's more to it of course, many other variables come into play - buying foreclosure properties, buying up not just one but a few fixer uppers, long term buy to hold strategies, short term buy to resell (flip) strategies all tied to what the overall housing market and then the general economy is doing etc etc.

My view is that the US housing market slump won't go lower for much longer, the amount of 'foreign' money going into the US is increasing, buyers of products over in china are increasing (thus making the US dollar go further there) and I'm thinking the current housing downturn won't last for too much longer - it's the domestic population who took advantage of less controlled borrowing and now subsequently falling out wth their replayments who are a good part of the housing slump there at the moment - the 'rest' of the US economy in relation to it, is much stronger.

Anyway I'll shutup now!

Cheers! DtM! West London & Slough UK!