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Topic: UK: Climate change data dumped.  (Read 4745 times)

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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #30 on: December 06, 2009, 03:19:21 PM »
Oh please. My husband is a scientist and is in no way, shape, or form a left wing activist. His own research shows that the current climate change we are experiencing is well above and beyond what is considered normal climate fluctuation. He is not paid by any company or corporation to provide this research. As a matter of fact, his employer is the US government and his research was approved during GWBush's tenure.

Global warming, of the type feared (not the type expected) is a serious issue and a very complex one. Unfortunately, the good scientists out there are being shouted down by the extremists on both sides.


Great Post.

I studied IPCC data for my dissertation and ran several climate models for analysis so  I know a little about this incredibly complex issue.

I'm not political, and in fact feel that the political aspect of Climate Change is clouding and distorting the scientific evidence, the way grants and research is funded in some instances also does not help.

I personally fell that the science is indicative but I don't feel there is enough evidence there to change our whole system and economy, instead we should be focusing on sensible, manageable changes to reduce carbon emissions, pollution and wastage ( This is something we should be doing anyway) Remove the politics from the science and allow (i.e give resource with no strings attached) scientists and engineers to do their job.
 
I would also have serious concerns about drawing any form of conclusion from a graph which has only 30 years of data on it.



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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #31 on: December 06, 2009, 04:38:47 PM »
Great Post.

I studied IPCC data for my dissertation and ran several climate models for analysis so  I know a little about this incredibly complex issue.

I'm not political, and in fact feel that the political aspect of Climate Change is clouding and distorting the scientific evidence, the way grants and research is funded in some instances also does not help.

I personally fell that the science is indicative but I don't feel there is enough evidence there to change our whole system and economy, instead we should be focusing on sensible, manageable changes to reduce carbon emissions, pollution and wastage ( This is something we should be doing anyway) Remove the politics from the science and allow (i.e give resource with no strings attached) scientists and engineers to do their job.
 
I would also have serious concerns about drawing any form of conclusion from a graph which has only 30 years of data on it.



Great post! I completely agree.
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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #32 on: December 06, 2009, 10:18:38 PM »
Why are we back to where we were in 1981?  Your "science" cannot explain why there was a big spike leading up to 1998 and a big drop after that.  According to this chart, this decade has cooled since 1998 despite more CO2 emissions from emerging economies in Asia like China and India.

The big spike in 1997-1998 was a short-term temperature anomaly and was due to the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) occurring in those years. From http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd12jan99_1.htm:

'The resulting time series shows the temperature trend in the lower troposphere is zero for 1979-97. At the same time, the temperature of the lower stratosphere has declined at a rate of -0.6 degrees C per decade. The warm El-Niño/Southern Oscillation of 1998 caused the warmest monthly temperature anomalies of any observed to date, with April and May 1998 near +0.7 C above the base period mean of 1982-91.The warm El-Niño/Southern Oscillation of 1998 caused the warmest monthly temperature anomalies of any observed to date, with April and May 1998 near +0.7 C above the base period mean of 1982-91.

"Every year, of course, we add another 12 months to the temperature trend," said Christy. "But 1998 was particularly interesting. While two previous strong El-Niños occurred in the past 20 years, this is the first one that occurs without a simultaneous volcanic eruption." El-Niño warming events and the eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and El Chichon in 1983 have been the most influential events on the temperature trend to date. "Obviously, El Niños are part of the natural weather cycle, and shouldn't be discounted," said Christy. "When we look at long-term trends, however, we shouldn't assign excess importance to individual unusual or extreme short-term events, such as this El Niño or the cooling that followed the eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in 1991."'


I would also have serious concerns about drawing any form of conclusion from a graph which has only 30 years of data on it.

Exactly.

I looked at ice age trends with my undergraduate students in the US last year and we were studying climate change and levels of CO2 over periods of hundreds of thousands of years. CO2 levels have routinely risen and fallen over the last 400 thousand years (between 200 ppmv (parts per million by volume) and 300 ppmv), coinciding with ice age cycles, until the 19th Century. But since the Industrial Revolution, the levels have risen faster and higher than ever before recorded and are now approaching 400 ppmv, which is the highest recorded level in 400,000 years and is inconsistent with previous CO2 trends (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/d/d3/Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr_Rev.png)!


Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #33 on: December 06, 2009, 10:58:50 PM »
Maybe if people could stop calling each other names for a moment, there could be a sensible discussion? Just a thought.

You cant have a rational discussion with irrational people.  Unfortunately, conspiracy theorists tend to fall in the latter category.  Whereas my data is backed up by two months worth of studying the subject in my university science course.


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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #34 on: December 06, 2009, 11:23:58 PM »
Maybe if people could stop calling each other names for a moment, there could be a sensible discussion? Just a thought.
You cant have a rational discussion with irrational people.  Unfortunately, conspiracy theorists tend to fall in the latter category. 

Doesn't mean that name calling is a justifiable resort whether the person is 'rational' or 'irrational.' I've dealt with 'irrational' people before when trying to explain my point. However, I have always found it is better to simply leave it than to get frustrated and upset trying to offer my opinion when they won't listen anyway.

I looked at ice age trends with my undergraduate students in the US last year and we were studying climate change and levels of CO2 over periods of hundreds of thousands of years. CO2 levels have routinely risen and fallen over the last 400 thousand years (between 200 ppmv (parts per million by volume) and 300 ppmv), coinciding with ice age cycles, until the 19th Century. But since the Industrial Revolution, the levels have risen faster and higher than ever before recorded and are now approaching 400 ppmv, which is the highest recorded level in 400,000 years and is inconsistent with previous CO2 trends (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/d/d3/Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr_Rev.png)!

ksand24, referring to the graph you provided, did the ice ages occur when CO2 levels were at their lowest or at their 'peak?'
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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #35 on: December 06, 2009, 11:41:56 PM »
Ice ages has lower CO2 in the atmosphere.  But you need to consider that the last time CO2 emissions were similar to today's was the Eemian Interglacial Period, which if you look it into dropped off quite significantly and into an ice age.  Given Interglacial Period trends, we are nearing the end of one.  As Ksand24 rightly said, the last 200 years of CO2 ppm are not falling in line with the trends of the last 400,000 years, and it's undeniable this is going to have an effect on how things go moving forward, especially if we dont work to curb it.

In a simple model, the earth has what's known as an albedo value ie it's ability to bounce in coming radiation back into space.  To have a higher albedo, you needs things like cloud cover, ice and snow, etc.  With carbon emissions causing a rise in GMST, we are seeing a decrease in the planet's albedo value ie melting ice caps, warmer winters, etc (among other things), meaning that the earth and it's atmosphere are growing hotter from the radiation it is having less and less ability to refract back into space. 

This being just one effect.


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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #36 on: December 06, 2009, 11:43:13 PM »
ksand24, referring to the graph you provided, did the ice ages occur when CO2 levels were at their lowest or at their 'peak?'

I was trying to figure that out from the source, but it didn't mention which were the ice age periods and which were the inter-glacial periods. However, from doing a quick internet search, I've found out that the peak CO2 levels coincide with inter-glacial periods, meaning that CO2 levels were lower during the ice ages (http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/last_400k_yrs.html).

ETA: x-posted with Navie

Look at your chart again.  We're on par with 1981.  The data is incredibly variable.  It is not consistent

Temperature data (most real-life data in fact) is inconsistent and variable (especially on a short timescale like in that chart, where seasonal and even daily temperature changes may show up in the data), which is why we need to look at data collected over decades, centuries, millennia or even millions of years in order to determine whether the variations do indeed show an overall change or are just fluctuations which average out to a constant overall temperature.

If you look at this chart, showing temperature anomalies over the past 130 years, you can see a definite increasing trend, in which the 1997-98 variations shown in the 1979-2009 chart are barely even a blip on the radar (from: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/index.html).



Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #37 on: December 06, 2009, 11:44:36 PM »

 
I would also have serious concerns about drawing any form of conclusion from a graph which has only 30 years of data on it.



The graph was posted because Juniormint challenged us to show a trend in the last ten years of increase, so I found a graph scaled to the most recent of years to show that yes, it's still increasing in the last 10 years.


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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #38 on: December 07, 2009, 12:35:46 AM »
I'm used to it.  Myself and few others here are regularly the target of vicious character assassinations by people on this forum who don't like our point of views.

I think you'd find that your views would be more accepted if you didn't start your posts off with things like:

Those dirty rotten liars! 

If you begin with strong emotional statements, you should expect strong emotional responses.  If you want to have a reasoned discussion about differing view points, you should start with a more respectful tone.


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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #39 on: December 07, 2009, 01:41:59 AM »
I said early on that I wasn't going to get involved but...

Can't the die hards of both sides agree to see the possibility they could be wrong?

Remember, you are not only addressing one person in the forum. You have a huge audience and many of us are turned off by peoples lack of respect for the other side. Do you want us middle of the roaders on your side? Then act like it. Quit trying to convince the die hards and concentrate on the ones that aren't sure. Both sides have scientists and respected valuable opinionators arguing the points. (Yes I DO believe middle of the roaders are still seeking proof either way. And even if I am pro, I am allowed and will change my side if the facts and arguments are presented civilly. Name calling, snarky comments, etc really do detract from one's argument. Why, because one is too emotionally involved and emotions don't work together with the brain's logical side. Therefore, I can't take one's argument as sound, even if it is sound. And I would rather trust your argument than have to google each time to see if one is correct.

There are a few of us in here that don't fully believe yet don't fully disbelieve yet we do think it's prudent to curb our ways.

The pros - what do you really want? Do you want people to accept there is abnormal climate change or would you rather have people working towards reducing 'the green house effect'? The latter would help the cause much more.

How might you achieve this? 

Argue the conservation of a precious and extremely finite resource - oil. Don't argue the pollution aspect (well too much).

Argue the case for increase gov't input to public transport, not for sparing the earth but for making life easier (less traffic congestion), less costly (less tax for road maintenance), etc.

You want to beat the 'enemy'? Then ya got to think like they do. Find out what motivates them and work on that angle.

Remember either way, the argument should not be for saving the planet but for saving mankind. Earth will always recover and survive. Mankind, on the other hand, is not so adaptable as we like to think.

Still tired of coteries and bans. But hanging about anyway.


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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #40 on: December 07, 2009, 09:10:01 AM »
And perhaps you should read the chart you posted.  We're significantly lower than in 1998.  The temperature has dropped for the most part.

AND PLEASE tell me where on this forum I have ever said 9/11 was an inside job - that is rediculous.  9/11 was perpetrated by 19 Arab Muslim terrorists.


I'm undecided on this debate either way, but this is ridiculous. YOU look at the chart and you'll see that temperatures are "significantly higher" than in 1985. That chart doesn't prove ANYTHING.

Secondly, the data was disposed of in 1980. That is almost 30 years ago! Only now this is a big deal?

Thirdly, quite frankly none of this thread is doing much to convince me of anything other than you have absolutely no concept of how to speak politely and with respect to each other.

« Last Edit: December 07, 2009, 10:25:46 AM by grumpyjet »


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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #41 on: December 07, 2009, 09:17:26 AM »
Quote
Can't the die hards of both sides agree to see the possibility they could be wrong?

There is a big problem with this sort of thinking, and it's something I see in the media all the time. Two sides of an issue are presented as if they were equally valid and with balanced evidence, but with something like climate change or evolution, 99% of the evidence is on the science side and 99% of the volume is on the irrational denier side. No, both positions are not valid, it's just that the general public doesn't understand the science and instead goes with emotional reactions and personal biases.
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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #42 on: December 07, 2009, 09:29:32 AM »
There is a big problem with this sort of thinking, and it's something I see in the media all the time. Two sides of an issue are presented as if they were equally valid and with balanced evidence, but with something like climate change or evolution, 99% of the evidence is on the science side and 99% of the volume is on the irrational denier side. No, both positions are not valid, it's just that the general public doesn't understand the science and instead goes with emotional reactions and personal biases.

I would say it is very valid. If it were 99%, I don't think there would be much of an argument.

You may have missed what I was trying to say - In a nutshell, honey works better than vinegar.

I don't need convincing but then I am not the one you are trying to change.



Still tired of coteries and bans. But hanging about anyway.


Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #43 on: December 07, 2009, 10:07:59 AM »
You may have missed what I was trying to say - In a nutshell, honey works better than vinegar.

This common saying was disproved, vinegar works better than honey... and manure works better than both.   ;D

I apologize to both Juniormint and the community for lowering myself to mudslinging and name calling. It wasn't "How to Win Friends and Influence People" of me. However, Juniormint does not suffer the hostility he/she is subjected to on this board for his/her opinions. It has nothing to do with one's own opinions.  What it has everything to do with is posting topics such as these which are a) not supported with any evidence or logical argument and b) seemingly posted to instigate an argument in those who feel differently.  

I have respected many people with differing opinions in my life, but none of those I've respected have constructed an argument with a flow of "lies! wait, I have no evidence... still, lies!"  That's not debate, that's instigation of argument. Which is two skips from trolling imo.  So, I implore anyone willing to answer: how can one expect both an acceptance of one's opinions and, at the same time, present them with no fact or logic?

Personally, I'm not trying to convert people to the idea climate change is a real and present danger, only trying to show the fallacy in the initial post/claim/argument.  Frankly, the entire world could believe climate change will be the death of us and still no one would change.

Then again, Im "arguing on teh interwebz, lulz!" again, which means I haven't won either.

My two cents anyways.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2009, 10:11:06 AM by Navie »


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Re: UK: Climate change data dumped.
« Reply #44 on: December 07, 2009, 10:11:17 AM »
Quote
I would say it is very valid. If it were 99%, I don't think there would be much of an argument.

You would think so, but there are still flat-earthers, and there are still people who think the earth is less than 10,000 years old, yet 99%, in fact, I would say 100% of the evidence is against them. You wouldn't know it from how loudly the flat/young earthers shout, and how much air time the media gives them though.
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