Any idea where this forecast can be found?
If you open the link in post #1 and scroll down to about 4/5 of the way through the article, you will find a table of the new costs for both passports and relinquishing. If you look at the 2nd column from the right, it gives the
estimated number of applicants. For
(a.) Oath of Renunciation, it lists an estimate of 5,986. For
(b.) Relinquishments, it lists an estimate of 559.
If you look at footnote 4, below the table, it states:
The existing fee definition covers a projected 5,986 applicants renouncing their U.S. nationality in FY 2015. This rule expands the definition of the fee to cover an additional projected 559 applicants who will relinquish their nationality in FY 2015. The total volume of applicants paying this fee is projected to be 6,545, if in effect for all of FY 2015. This is for the US Fiscal Year 2015, not calendar year 2015. The ratio of relinquishments to renunciations appears low, judging by what little information is available. 5,986 renouncing should equal about 2,500 relinquishing. The DoS claims to have no figures for either, so stating 5,986 comes as a surprise, although it may align more accurately with available FBI statistics. The number reported in the Federal Registers "Name and Shame" quarterly list has been proven to be low, and even publications such as the
Wall Street Journal now refer to the figures as "reported renunciations", not actual renunciations.
https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2015/09/08/2015-22054/schedule-of-fees-for-consular-services-department-of-state-and-overseas-embassies-and#p-48The new fee for relinquishment does not come as a surprise. Most guessed it would have to happen sooner rather than later. 6,545 X $2,350 = $15.4 million. If it were all spent in London, that should at least help pay the rent to the Middle Eastern owners of the London US embassy until they move to their new site.
The new fee for relinquishing does close out an option for those who cannot afford the $2,350, especially if there are 2 or more family members taking this action.