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Topic: march timeline  (Read 26621 times)

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Re: march timeline
« Reply #90 on: March 16, 2017, 04:02:37 PM »
Yeah, I just found it too - it's only for in-country applications for ILR where you switch from a postal application to an in-person application at a Premium Service Centre .


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #91 on: March 16, 2017, 04:14:16 PM »
End of day again....no email......blah.

I'm assuming no one else has heard anything either. I really hope to hear by Friday. We have the flight date for our dog and I need to fly out within 5 days either side of him so hopefully it's sorted out before then. I think the latest I can leave is April 4th. Not that it's a huge deal, it just means we will have to pay VAT and/or import fees. Which is fine, I would just rather not if we don't have to! Our son is really starting to have a hard time away from Daddy, he's never been away from him more than a few days. I know it's hard on my husband too. He's having a hard time adjusting back to life in the UK on his own and I know he is having a really hard time being away from the little one. Fingers crossed that we all hear something in the next few days!! It's hard to wait but I'm sure we will all get through soon!
I'm curious how many applications are processed for people who don't join the forum.  I imagine the number is quite high.  Do you suspect they run through them as they get them, or perhaps they have a target or goal regarding how many should be processed or approved in a given time frame.   The waiting is very hard.  You and I are on a similar time frame with the exception that I did the biometrics and sent my packet on Feb. 28. 


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #92 on: March 16, 2017, 04:28:03 PM »
I'm curious how many applications are processed for people who don't join the forum.  I imagine the number is quite high.  Do you suspect they run through them as they get them, or perhaps they have a target or goal regarding how many should be processed or approved in a given time frame.   The waiting is very hard.  You and I are on a similar time frame with the exception that I did the biometrics and sent my packet on Feb. 28.

I've been hanging around the forum for about 5 years.  They are definitely very good at processing as they are received (not trying to skew processing times deliberately).

But some things to consider:  when they post their average processing times, both priority and non-priority are lumped together - which skews the data.  Also when the have a big backlog (in the autumn when they start to clear the summer backlog), there will usually be a bit of disruption to the applications.  For example someone who has maybe only been waiting for two months will get their visa before someone who has been waiting four months.  We usually see 2 or 3 of these before they get back on-track. 


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #93 on: March 16, 2017, 04:35:52 PM »
That makes sense.  Thanks for the clarification.  Waiting gives my mind too much time to think about the various possibilities.  It hasn't actually been that long for me, but it feels like an eternity!  And to be clear, I didn't mean that they would skew the data, only that most organizations have some metric or target.  I was curious if that was a possibility.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2017, 04:37:25 PM by RParkes »


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #94 on: March 16, 2017, 04:38:19 PM »
there are some numbers on the overall number of applications they approve and deny each year.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-january-to-march-2015/immigration-statistics-january-to-march-2015#family-1

makes for some interesting reading. Its a year behind. be interested to see what happened in 2016 with Brexit. and speaking of that, I'm wondering if there was a rush of applications before its triggered at the end of this month(thats the case right), which is causing the longer processing times.
Met Dublin Ireland- July 2013
Long distance from November 2014-2016
Married 😍 in NYC :6th of January 2017
Spouse Visa Approved!! : 27th of February 2017
Moved to UK: 28th of April 2017

Applied FLR(M)-  12th January 2020
Biometrics- 20th of January 2020


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #95 on: March 16, 2017, 04:41:46 PM »
Do you suspect they run through them as they get them, or perhaps they have a target or goal regarding how many should be processed or approved in a given time frame.

That makes sense.  Thanks for the clarification.  Waiting gives my mind too much time to think about the various possibilities.  It hasn't actually been that long for me, but it feels like an eternity!  And to be clear, I didn't mean that they would skew the data, only that most organizations have some metric or target.  I was curious if that was a possibility.

The processing standards time set by UKVI is that they will process 95% of settlement visa applications within 60 working days (12 weeks). That's really the only information we have regarding how long they are expected to take.

Once they actually get to each application, it generally only takes 1-2 hours to make a decision, so the majority of the processing time is your package waiting in line with all the other applications.

Sheffield processes applications from a number of different countries. I don't know all of them, but I do know that they do process settlement visas from:
USA
Canada
Pakistan
India
The Caribbean
Indonesia
China

In the 3 months from October to December 2016, UKVI processed about 3850 settlement visas from just those countries, so that's about 1280 per month, or assuming they work an average of 20 working days per month, about 65 per day. And that's not including applications from any other countries that I'm not aware of.


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #96 on: March 16, 2017, 04:42:30 PM »
Its a year behind. be interested to see what happened in 2016 with Brexit. and speaking of that, I'm wondering if there was a rush of applications before its triggered at the end of this month(thats the case right), which is causing the longer processing times.

Here you go - all the statistics up to December 2016:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-october-to-december-2016/list-of-tables


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #97 on: March 16, 2017, 04:45:26 PM »
Thank you for that!  Very interesting.  I guess that answers the question of how many applications are submitted aside of those on this forum.  It would be fun to see the data broken down by month.  I'm going to continue to look.  It'll keep my mind busy.  ;)


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #98 on: March 16, 2017, 04:51:50 PM »
It would be fun to see the data broken down by month.  I'm going to continue to look.  It'll keep my mind busy.  ;)

I don't believe they publish any monthly statistics.

It used to be that at the bottom of the Visa Processing Times pages on the UKVI website they would put the total number of decisions made that month, but they stopped doing that a couple of years ago.


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #99 on: March 16, 2017, 04:57:44 PM »
I cannot believe what I am reading! Refusals for settlement visas up by 10% in 12 months!!

And the amount of husbands granted UK spouse visas went from 18k in 2009 to 4k in 2015!!

Deary me.
Impatient Brit waiting on a spouse visa for her American husband..
Non Priority application received by Sheffield on February 27 2017
Decision Email : May 16th


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #100 on: March 16, 2017, 05:11:38 PM »
be interested to see what happened in 2016 with Brexit. and speaking of that, I'm wondering if there was a rush of applications before its triggered at the end of this month(thats the case right), which is causing the longer processing times.

No, I genuinely don't think settlement applications are AT ALL affected by Brexit at this point.  Without question, there has been a massive surge in applications by EU passport holders living in the UK and in Permanent Residence applications, leading to naturalisation applications.  But those are totally different teams.

I think right now is just a normal lull.  Things were just VERY fast for a week or two there, which unfortunately I think set really high expectations.  They are likely returning to a "normal" processing time again.  Then in mid/late April or May, we'll start to see the true lag of the summer crush.


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #101 on: March 16, 2017, 05:20:30 PM »
I cannot believe what I am reading! Refusals for settlement visas up by 10% in 12 months!!

And the amount of husbands granted UK spouse visas went from 18k in 2009 to 4k in 2015!!

Deary me.

That's only because of the rule changes in 2012... before July 2012 there was no minimum income requirement - you just had to show you had 'enough' money to live off, AND the applicant's income or future employment could count as well AND you could use third party support from family members too.

Therefore a lot more people were able to qualify for a settlement visa.

They introduced the £18,600 income requirement in July 2012 as a way to cut the number of settlement visas issued per year... it was estimated that the new rules would prevent approximately 45% of people who could previously have applied from being eligible to apply.

The actual approval rate of applications has in fact increased since 2009, at least for applications from the US.

In 2009, the approval rate of ALL applications (all visa types) made in the US was between 85% and 92%.

In 2016, the approval rate of ALL applications made in the US was between 93% and 96%


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #102 on: March 16, 2017, 05:32:19 PM »
I cannot believe what I am reading! Refusals for settlement visas up by 10% in 12 months!!

And the amount of husbands granted UK spouse visas went from 18k in 2009 to 4k in 2015!!

Deary me.

Hang on, are you looking at the correct statistics?

The spousal visa statistics don't differentiate between Husbands and Wives - they just lump them all into the 'Family' category.

The total number of spousal visas issued in 2009 (across the world) was 38,242, with 2,432 granted from the US.

The total number of spousal visas issued in 2015 (across the world) was 38,119 with 1,639 from the US.

I think you're looking at ILR applications for settlement made inside the UK - which has decreased from 19,872 in 2009 to 1,535 in 2016.

However, the reason for that is because in 2012, the time it takes to gain ILR increased from 2 years to 5 years... which means that no one with a spousal visa granted since July 2012 will qualify to apply for ILR as a Husband or Wife until July 2017.

The reason for the drastic drop in ILR visas granted between 2009 and 2015 is simply because everyone who qualifies for it has already applied, and no one new has been able to qualify for it yet.

So, that means that none of the 470,000 people who have been granted spousal visas since 2012 can qualify to apply for settlement yet... and therefore they won't be included in the 'settlement' tables.

The tables you should be looking at for spousal visas are in section 2: Visas, Volumes 1-4:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-october-to-december-2016/list-of-tables#visas

Total approvals and refusals stats are in Volume 1, work visas are volume 2, family visas (spousal visas) and student visas are in volume 3 and EEA visas are in Volume 4.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2017, 05:37:28 PM by ksand24 »


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #103 on: March 16, 2017, 05:54:31 PM »
I'm curious how many applications are processed for people who don't join the forum.  I imagine the number is quite high.  Do you suspect they run through them as they get them, or perhaps they have a target or goal regarding how many should be processed or approved in a given time frame.   The waiting is very hard.  You and I are on a similar time frame with the exception that I did the biometrics and sent my packet on Feb. 28.

I sent mine on the 28th too. Got confirmation on the 1 March. So we are the same. Hopefully we all start hearing something soon!
Met: Sept 2008
US Fiancé Visa: June 2010
Married in US: July 2010
Son born: Feb 2012
Online Application: 24 Feb 2017
Biometrics: 27 Feb 3017
Sent application priority: 28 Feb 2017
Visa received: 29 Mar 2017--APPROVED!
Arrived in UK: 13 April 2017


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Re: march timeline
« Reply #104 on: March 17, 2017, 05:13:57 PM »
Another end of week with no word from Sheffield.  Looks like my husband will be flying without me next week.  This Monday will be the last possible day I can hear and possibly get my docs and visa back before flight on Thursday.  Looking like plan b goes into effect (I stay behind at my daughter's house till visa gets sorted.  Sigh.

On a brighter note the house sale closed without a hitch today and after costs our profits are about 10k higher than we had figured.  Selling the house was actually the biggest hurdle and that's done.


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