You know my views on Trump. But I will suggest he is a cunning businessman. If asked by Britain how I would approach him, I would suggest preparing for a thorough buggering.
Trump is bombastic & narcissistic. It’s not complicated to understand how to deal with that, at least in the moment. You saw Marcon & the South Koreans do it well.
From a pure business approach, Trump is irrelevant to a trade deal offering.
The US would demand international food safety standards, which means GMOs and all the things the EU doesn’t like about global industrialized agriculture. And there’d be a face saving steel compromise.
In exchange, I expect there’d be a guarantee to find a profitable home for any previously EU bound good that is no longer viable; not freedom of movement, but an easy work visa process; amendments to the tax treaty based on the new US tax law and making it easier for Americans owning businesses in the UK & vice versa, as well as business investment - I suspect a UK form bilateral investment treaty... generally a large reduction in cost of living, increase in jobs, and increase in compensation levels - not on par with the US but approaching it.
If they’re smart, on this trip they’ll agree a compromise on steel that allows reduction or lifting of the tariff on the UK but not EU. I’m not as sure of that, but I suspect it’s the case.
There’ll be talk of properly funding defense & the necessity to a free world of the UK as a 1st tier partner. Implications of course that money previously going to the EU needs to partially fill the defense gap. The bulk of course to NHS, which of course won’t be mentioned.
And I’m curious to see if the UK is invited to participate as an observer in the NAFTA renegotiations. Implications obvious.
The UK will push for passporting to US financial markets. It won’t be decided at this stage. It’ll get tossed around. The city will go nuts for it. Really strong possibility if some cooperation can be worked out between regulators.
I realize a lot of people in the UK, Grove included, would be horrified to accept global food standards. And that won’t be decided at this point.
But the overall promise of what that deal has to offer is massively greater for the UK than anything the EU has to offer in order to be at something less than WTO rules.
If the US back channels something like that, downplaying the scary bits and up playing the advantages, while also bolstering support of rebels in one form or another... that could be a very big shakeup.
It would mean that finally we’re coming to a point of seeing clear alternatives between what a soft Brexit versus openness to the rest of the world looks like. I realize people come down on different sides, and that’s fine, but I like seeing the clear choice presented.
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