Brexit

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/eu-gives-may-28-days-find-new-brexit-plan-face-no-deal-142412943.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/european-leaders-pour-scorn-british-pm-brexit-plan-180920133723168.html
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0920/994895-varadkar-may-eu-salzburg/

So, going to the EU with an ultimatum results in another ultimatum. What a strange way to negotiate.   

Looks like a hard Brexit on the horizon. Batten down the hatches.     

I was at a tech conference today and noticed that the bulk of the CEOs/speakers were American or Indians living in America, with several Europeans and South Africans, but very few Brits (the British speakers were from either politics or political think tanks). There was discussion about brain drain and future country competitive advantage (in general), the rush to implement one specific technology and who was going to win and you know what, the UK never really came up in the conversation about being a player, even though some of the technologies may have been developed here, once. Another speaker talked about how much EU funding they have lost for research since Brexit, not to mention the difficult question of who will train the next generation if many researchers have left to chase the money in other institutions or private firms. The moderators kept the conversation on track and away from Brexit for the most part, and there seemed to be an implicit understanding in the crowd to "not go there", but it still crept in a bit.

Even if there is a second referendum (based on different questions) and Remain win, and the result is honored, well, so much international goodwill has been lost now that I imagine the UK has put itself on a sub-optimal alternate path now that will persist for many years to come.

Nan - I go back and forth daily - today I'm on 2nd referendum, although tomorrow it could be hard brexit. Found a good job in Munich to apply for, so maybe its time to start hedging the bets rather than waiting around to see if this government can get its act together (unlikely).

I was at a tech conference today and noticed that the bulk of the CEOs/speakers were American or Indians living in America, with several Europeans and South Africans, but very few Brits (the British speakers were from either politics or political think tanks). There was discussion about brain drain and future country competitive advantage (in general), the rush to implement one specific technology and who was going to win and you know what, the UK never really came up in the conversation about being a player, even though some of the technologies may have been developed here, once. Another speaker talked about how much EU funding they have lost for research since Brexit, not to mention the difficult question of who will train the next generation if many researchers have left to chase the money in other institutions or private firms. The moderators kept the conversation on track and away from Brexit for the most part, and there seemed to be an implicit understanding in the crowd to "not go there", but it still crept in a bit.

Even if there is a second referendum (based on different questions) and Remain win, and the result is honored, well, so much international goodwill has been lost now that I imagine the UK has put itself on a sub-optimal alternate path now that will persist for many years to come.

Nan - I go back and forth daily - today I'm on 2nd referendum, although tomorrow it could be hard brexit. Found a good job in Munich to apply for, so maybe its time to start hedging the bets rather than waiting around to see if this government can get its act together (unlikely).

R&D tax credit & funding are set to increase from what I understand. Any version of Brexit or not involved competing with EU states and the rest of the world to win businesses/activity. Brexit merely allows them to differential fund those efforts relative to the EU.

The issue you’re talking about in the tech sector didn’t suddenly appear since the Brexit vote. It’s been developing for a couple decades.


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Well your Plan B, in any part of life, should not be to drive off the cliff. "Hey you guys, do as I say or I will jump off this cliff!"

R&D tax credit & funding are set to increase from what I understand.

Really?  Do you have a source for that? 
I can't figure out where that funding would come from since no matter what, we've got to pay the EU something like 40 billion Euros right off the bat.  And if we leave without a deal, that means no passporting for the city of London, which means the economic powerhouse of the entire country will be gutted.

There's no way this government is paying any significant amount for R and D when the NHS is on fire.

Many things were "set" to increase, including funding for the NHS if you get your facts from what's written on the side of a bus. 

Well your Plan B, in any part of life, should not be to drive off the cliff. "Hey you guys, do as I say or I will jump off this cliff!"

Obviously a huge free trade deal needs to be reached with the EU. However, if there is a rush to capture that deal which involves too much alignment with EU standards (which are different to and therefore trade barriers to the rest of the world), then by definition it forecloses what you can negotiate with the rest of the world. And deals with the rest of the world, free from EU barriers, is the whole point of Brexit, or at least one of them.

Not having a fair deal with the EU that also keeps their powder dry for the rest of the world is not ideal. But the dry powder is more important. It is a bit scary and the UK will be vulnerable on that first major deal, which looks to be the US. But a fair deal with the EU ultimately will come.




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I was at a tech conference today and noticed that the bulk of the CEOs/speakers were American or Indians living in America, with several Europeans and South Africans, but very few Brits (the British speakers were from either politics or political think tanks). There was discussion about brain drain and future country competitive advantage (in general), the rush to implement one specific technology and who was going to win and you know what, the UK never really came up in the conversation about being a player, even though some of the technologies may have been developed here, once. Another speaker talked about how much EU funding they have lost for research since Brexit, not to mention the difficult question of who will train the next generation if many researchers have left to chase the money in other institutions or private firms. The moderators kept the conversation on track and away from Brexit for the most part, and there seemed to be an implicit understanding in the crowd to "not go there", but it still crept in a bit.

Even if there is a second referendum (based on different questions) and Remain win, and the result is honored, well, so much international goodwill has been lost now that I imagine the UK has put itself on a sub-optimal alternate path now that will persist for many years to come.

Nan - I go back and forth daily - today I'm on 2nd referendum, although tomorrow it could be hard brexit. Found a good job in Munich to apply for, so maybe its time to start hedging the bets rather than waiting around to see if this government can get its act together (unlikely).

Yeah, we're scouting France and Portugal, in case it's a hard B and they make it such that we have to leave. There's not going to be a lot of work for the Daughter here in her field when she's done, really, with EU funding removed from the equation. In one way it would make more sense for the Daughter to do her further studies in the EU, and then be able to settle in any of 27 countries (more or less), whereas staying here would mean the only way she could work in the EU later would be on a work permit. BUT, in her field you study with the people who are top in your area, and they are here (for now). So, we will still try to stick it out, but I intend to have a bolthole plan ready in case things go badly.

It's sad watching all this.

Obviously a huge free trade deal needs to be reached with the EU. However, if there is a rush to capture that deal which involves too much alignment with EU standards (which are different to and therefore trade barriers to the rest of the world), then by definition it forecloses what you can negotiate with the rest of the world. And deals with the rest of the world, free from EU barriers, is the whole point of Brexit, or at least one of them.

Not having a fair deal with the EU that also keeps their powder dry for the rest of the world is not ideal. But the dry powder is more important. It is a bit scary and the UK will be vulnerable on that first major deal, which looks to be the US. But a fair deal with the EU ultimately will come.




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As things stand now, if the first big deal is with the USA, the UK had better watch its collective back. The USA does deals for the benefit of the USA. Period. If it also benefits the UK, that's fine, but not the purpose of the USA's negotiations. And should a deal benefit both, if conditions change, the UK could find themselves in a position where they have the deal pulled back out from under them post-haste.

Really?  Do you have a source for that? 
I can't figure out where that funding would come from since no matter what, we've got to pay the EU something like 40 billion Euros right off the bat.  And if we leave without a deal, that means no passporting for the city of London, which means the economic powerhouse of the entire country will be gutted.

There's no way this government is paying any significant amount for R and D when the NHS is on fire.

Many things were "set" to increase, including funding for the NHS if you get your facts from what's written on the side of a bus.

I’m not the chancellor of the exchequer. Just saying they’ve said they’re bumping it up. Today I saw they’re open to bumping up taxes for NHS. They’ve also said no deal equals no payment. And US is pressuring rating agencies as it isn’t national debt, which of course has a price on the back side. I can’t really source you a bunch of articles on my phone while driving around the south of Spain.

London financial business is not insignificantly but not primarily from the continent. Passporting is really just a shortcut. Tons of money moves between UK & US investment banks without too much hassle. If anything, the inefficiency makes more work. I do think some level of passporting will end up part of a US deal.


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As things stand now, if the first big deal is with the USA, the UK had better watch its collective back. The USA does deals for the benefit of the USA. Period. If it also benefits the UK, that's fine, but not the purpose of the USA's negotiations. And should a deal benefit both, if conditions change, the UK could find themselves in a position where they have the deal pulled back out from under them post-haste.

Everyone does deals that benefit them. No one, EU included, has ever done a magnanimous open world and let the chips fall where they may. That’s not how trade works.

For sure the UK should be ready for a tough deal. I think the US will give on financial & professional services, which the UK has to jump on at all costs. That really benefits both sides and should be huge for the city. I think some sort of eased worker movement aspect will be part of it. I think some supply chain will open up in auto, aviation, defense, and some general manufacturing. Biomed could be interesting. Metals could be dicey. The big pill to swallow would be global agriculture standards. That won’t be popular. It should reduce aspects of cost of living though. That’s my guess anyway. It’s what I’d be offering if I were the US and consistent with what they’ve been floating back channel and offhandedly in the press.

Alternatively, they could come in with Canada ok NAFTA 2.0 or maybe 3.0. More leverage that way, but less to gain.

Pros & cons to each.


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I was at a tech conference today and noticed that the bulk of the CEOs/speakers were American or Indians living in America, with several Europeans and South Africans, but very few Brits (the British speakers were from either politics or political think tanks). There was discussion about brain drain and future country competitive advantage (in general), the rush to implement one specific technology and who was going to win and you know what, the UK never really came up in the conversation about being a player, even though some of the technologies may have been developed here, once.

The UK have a highly skilled worker visas which will continue after Brexit because they are UK immigration rules e.g. the Tier 2 General visa https://www.gov.uk/tier-2-general 
However, unlike the EU rules, these migrants must find a job before they move to the UK and the employer carries out a Resident Labour Market Test before the job is offered: for settlement there is a minimum earnings requriement to meet which is set just above the cap for low income welfare payments. These highly skilled migrants doing a job on the UK's SOL (Shortage Occupation List) are exempt from the RLMT and from the minimum earnings requirement for settlement, as are those doing a PhD level job for certain jobs in research.

The UK also has a Tier 1 (Exceptional Talent) visa.
"You can apply for a Tier 1 (Exceptional Talent) visa if you’ve been endorsed in your field in science, humanities, engineering, medicine, digital technology or the arts as:

    a recognised leader (exceptional talent)
    an emerging leader (exceptional promise)"
https://www.gov.uk/tier-1-exceptional-talent


The independent body of experts, The MAC, have just finished a report this week for the UK after consulting with business for the past year, that says that after Brexit, the UK should not continue to give special treatment to EEA citizens and all the non-EEA citizens using the EU's "free movement", unless the UK do this for a trade deal. The Australian style points based system the UK already has for work visas, brings in the workers the UK needs. Although like Australia, they also recommend a medium skilled visa too i.e. skilled tradespersons that the UK needs.
https://talk.uk-yankee.com/index.php?topic=94744.0

Another speaker talked about how much EU funding they have lost for research since Brexit,

If that is happening, then that is due to the present EU budget and the EU have made those cuts to all EEA countries. The UK's billions are still being paid to the EU budget every year, for "EU funding".

Cuts from "EU funding" to EEA countries because of Brexit, will happen after Brexit, as the EU will lose the UK's 15 billion a year to spend on other EEA countries; which the EU have now calculated as the loss to that budget,  up from 12 they first thought after the Leave vote. It's this EU budget that gives what the EU calls "EU funding". It's why the EU need 39 billion from the UK to make up for the shortfall in this present EU budget, because their Article 50 stated that all obligation to the EU ends.

Not everything is fully funded by the EU budget and research is one of the things that is not. Part is from "EU funding" and the rest of the money comes from that country. However, the CAP (40% of the entire EU budget) and the Cohesion budget, are fully funded from the EU budget.

As the UK pays more in to the EU budget than they take out, it means that everything that is "EU funded" in the UK, is all paid for by the UK taxpayers.

You may have seen the news on some of the recent EU talks for the next EU budget, with the loss of UK's billions? How France, who is always the biggest taker from the CAP budget, voted for the other EEA  countries to pay more in to make up for the loss of the UK billions, to avoid a cut to their CAP payments? And how the other rich EEA countries voted against France, saying that their  economy will be hit by Brexit and they don't want to pay more in? How the EU has now said there will have be cuts to the CAP funding because of the loss of the UK's billions to the EU budget? That's Brexit.

Most EEA countries are net takers from the EU budget. If you scroll down on this link to a German online magaizine, they have a chart which shows the countries who pay for the EU budget and all the many EEA countries who take from the EU budget.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-to-cost-european-union-billions-a-1111724.html

Everyone does deals that benefit them. No one, EU included, has ever done a magnanimous open world and let the chips fall where they may. That’s not how trade works.


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Of course. But you'd be amazed how many people I hear saying "your country is our friend, right? So trade will be good." To which I have to bite my lip and say "Well, we can hope!" and smile, rather than "Sorry, dear, the USA has interests, not friends. As long as it's in the USA's  interests to do something it'll happen. Once it's not, your country will be dropped like a hot rock without so much as a second thought for "friend" or "ally"."

Uhh, I've just seen this.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/theresa-may-issue-update-brexit-negotiations-following-chequers-rejection-eu-leaders-121005440.html

Ok, is this woman living in Fairyland??? The UK is not in a position of power in this negotiation. It is in its best interest to propose something amenable to the EU, not the EU's job to agree to modify their position past the point where doing so would damage its own integrity.  If the UK blunders out with a hard Brexit and doesn't pay the divorce bill, it risks being a pariah with no credibility on the world stage for decades.

All I can get from this is that the PM is trying to manipulate public opinion away from her failure to get a concensus in her own government for a viable plan. (Remember the handshake agreement with the Irish government before the DUP, who she needs to appease to stay in power, threw a fit over it and that had the PM backpedaling like crazy?) Bringing up the spectre of the UK having been "disrespected" by the other party and trying to shift the focus...Wow, that's.... kinda pathetic, really.

I suppose it would be untoward of me to suggest that she step down as she cannot get the job done, let a new PM take over, a request be made to the EU to extend the negotiation period, and the whole process be revisited?

Of course. But you'd be amazed how many people I hear saying "your country is our friend, right? So trade will be good." To which I have to bite my lip and say "Well, we can hope!" and smile, rather than "Sorry, dear, the USA has interests, not friends. As long as it's in the USA's  interests to do something it'll happen. Once it's not, your country will be dropped like a hot rock without so much as a second thought for "friend" or "ally"."

Everyone has interests, not friends. That was the case when we came into two world wars as much as it is this case.

There’s no serious danger of the rug being pulled out once in place. Things might re-jigger on one side or other as interests or leverage flexes, but that’s the case in any deal with any country. Same thing happens inside the EU when the interests of Germany or France change. The UK is not at the mercy of the US in that long term relationship.


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Uhh, I've just seen this.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/theresa-may-issue-update-brexit-negotiations-following-chequers-rejection-eu-leaders-121005440.html

Ok, is this woman living in Fairyland??? The UK is not in a position of power in this negotiation. It is in its best interest to propose something amenable to the EU, not the EU's job to agree to modify their position past the point where doing so would damage its own integrity.  If the UK blunders out with a hard Brexit and doesn't pay the divorce bill, it risks being a pariah with no credibility on the world stage for decades.

All I can get from this is that the PM is trying to manipulate public opinion away from her failure to get a concensus in her own government for a viable plan. (Remember the handshake agreement with the Irish government before the DUP, who she needs to appease to stay in power, threw a fit over it and that had the PM backpedaling like crazy?) Bringing up the spectre of the UK having been "disrespected" by the other party and trying to shift the focus...Wow, that's.... kinda pathetic, really.

I suppose it would be untoward of me to suggest that she step down as she cannot get the job done, let a new PM take over, a request be made to the EU to extend the negotiation period, and the whole process be revisited?

The PM is a bit delusional in general. She was talking recently of staying PM as long as Thatcher. Her plan would have less benefit than being in the EU but also foreclose beneficial deals with the rest of the world. It is the worst of both worlds.

Half the country voted for Brexit with wildly different ideas of what that meant. That means half the country will disapprove of anything resulting in leave, and of those in favor of leave only a slice will approve of whatever is settled on. So, that’s say 70-80% of the country that will hate whoever the PM is at that moment. All the benefit of Brexit is the trade deals that come after they’re out. The stuff that can make a PM wildly popular. Everyone from Boris to Corbyn are licking their chops at that prospect. But it means letting her fall on the sword and then swooping in.

Ultimately the deal with the EU is the least important. It will happen. Right now a lot of people across the political spectrum are terrified of what the wild world out there has to offer or not, and are dealing with the EU out of fear. That’s a mistake. They’re better off going back at the EU after they have a couple trade deals so they don’t need them so bad. The transition is scary but it’ll work out.


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