To make sure I understand, one.more.time!
I have one source of income, from the USA (a pension), that I believe is exempt from UK tax (per tax treaty) as it is a government pension. As there would be no foreign tax paid on it, I simply file my IRS taxes as usual every year on it. My US social security is taxable only in the UK, so while I would list it on my 1040, it would not listed as taxable income. I would list the SS on the UK Self Assessment as taxable and white-space the pension as non-taxable per the relevent section of the tax treaty. Assuming that is the case, all is well.
In the possible event that HMRC, at some future point, decides that the pension should have been taxable in the UK, I would then have to come up with the cash to pay that additional amount for those past years when it was treated as non-taxable? (Ick. I'm not rich.)
If that happened, I would need to file 1040X and form 1116 for any applicable year, list the pension as resourced-by-treaty, and to apply tax credits to get US tax refunds for that year to apply towards the UK tax I would need to check "accrued" on the foreign tax credit form 1116. (Since I would not have paid the tax to the HMRC, I could not get tax credits for those past years if I check "paid".) Otherwise, I'd be double-taxed.
Since I would have only the one revenue stream (the pension) taxed in the US, "apportionment" would be 100% of the resourced-by-treaty amount of the pension's credit. As SS is not taxed in the US, the UK tax on it cannot be used to offset US taxes.
If I knew in advance that the HMRC was going to tax my pension, I would probably be best to select "paid" rather than "accrued" on the form 1116, as I'd be able to pay what was due (or enough of it to wipe my IRS taxes for that year) prior to 31 December. Although turbotax or H&R Block will probably be the entity doing the math on it anyway, there would be no advantage to selecing "accrued" on form 1116 in that case.
In the unlikely event we had to go back to the US, I would have no foreign income other than possibly in that first year when I still would owe tax to HMRC. So the "accrued" v "paid" would be a moot point. If we ended up in, say, France, where my SS would not be taxed, and my pension would not be, staying with "accrued" if I'd previously been on it would not matter, as their tax year is aligned with the calendar, and US tax year and there would be no credits as there were no taxes.
So, given that, am I ~finally~ understanding foreign tax credits and "paid" v "accrued" correctly? And apportionment on 1116 Forms?