Sooo, they have a tentative Brexit agreement?

There effectively is no way to reverse Brexit. It is happening and all the capital on both sides of the channel and both sides of the ocean have already priced that in. A surprise reversal would be the financial crisis all over again.

Since we're all making declarative statements without having to provide evidence, I say this is nonsense.  If there were already new border stations, procedures, and personnel in place ready to implement new post-Brexit policies and procedures you'd have a point. As yet, though, nothing has changed because nothing has been agreed, so reversing Brexit would be as simple as not going ahead.

Plus, even if you were right, which you're not, continuing with a stupid plan just because you lack the imagination to change it is how you wind up accomplishing nothing in Afghanistan after 17 years at war.

My personal position is in favor of that because it gives the UK the maximum flexibility to control & adapt their own policy when they’re negotiating with the rest of the world who will demand concessions & deliver massive economic opportunities in return.

My position is a trade deal with the EU is ...

This is where the leaver fantasy really becomes untenable for me. If you watch the news, listen to local radio in the UK, or read leave supporters' comments on this forum you'll come away with 2 points they all share:

1. Negotiations to this point have been incompetent on the UK side, and duplicitous on the EU side.
2. If the commentator making point 1 were in charge, they'd just charge in like gangbusters, tell the EU in no uncertain terms what the UK was willing to agree to, and then sit back while the EU representatives got progressively more sweaty and nervous until they eventually capitulated.

I'm sure Theresa May, whatever you think of her party, is not a stupid person, and neither are the people working with her and for her. If they had the leverage in this negotiation, they'd know it and so would the people on the EU side. As it turns out the EU people are smart, too, and they can also see which side is holding all the cards.

It's the old bent banana argument. Some undemocratic Frenchman has power over our banana choices.

Should every technical detail be decided by direct Democracy? Does any government function that way?

And considering that our current Tory/DUP coalition exists through bribes and payoffs......

Wikipedia is hardly a reliable guide, and neither is personal opinions posted in a chatroom.  Reams have been written about the origins of the EU, why it is the way it is, and what the future direction should be.  It’s well worth reading about, for anyone who wants an understanding of a complex history.

Personally, I deeply appreciate the EU.  I remember what it was like before.

Absolutely.

I think that some of the problem with English resistance to the EU is that it is teleological. There is a purpose: you don't war with those you do good business with.

Since we're all making declarative statements without having to provide evidence, I say this is nonsense.  If there were already new border stations, procedures, and personnel in place ready to implement new post-Brexit policies and procedures you'd have a point. As yet, though, nothing has changed because nothing has been agreed, so reversing Brexit would be as simple as not going ahead.

Plus, even if you were right, which you're not, continuing with a stupid plan just because you lack the imagination to change it is how you wind up accomplishing nothing in Afghanistan after 17 years at war.

This is where the leaver fantasy really becomes untenable for me. If you watch the news, listen to local radio in the UK, or read leave supporters' comments on this forum you'll come away with 2 points they all share:

1. Negotiations to this point have been incompetent on the UK side, and duplicitous on the EU side.
2. If the commentator making point 1 were in charge, they'd just charge in like gangbusters, tell the EU in no uncertain terms what the UK was willing to agree to, and then sit back while the EU representatives got progressively more sweaty and nervous until they eventually capitulated.

I'm sure Theresa May, whatever you think of her party, is not a stupid person, and neither are the people working with her and for her. If they had the leverage in this negotiation, they'd know it and so would the people on the EU side. As it turns out the EU people are smart, too, and they can also see which side is holding all the cards.

If foods get checked by customs agents or not really isn’t the end of the world. The trillions shifted around by all sides on the premise that Brexit unquestionably is happening in some form or another, a lot of which would be lost if that turns out not to be the case, that matters more than air.

I’m quite certain the trade agreement opportunities with the rest of the world are neither lacking in imagination nor scared of change. Sticking to a bloc with stagnant growth because we’re scared of competing in the big free world is a bad plan and scared of change.

When you don’t have leverage, you refuse to negotiate while you go create leverage. That’s what they refused to do, because they’re rule followers to a fault.


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If foods get checked by customs agents or not really isn’t the end of the world.

Of course it's not whether or not things are checked, it's how long it takes for the checks to be done. Logistics, you see, are critically important, especially in an economy where many businesses rely on the frictionless movement of goods across borders. The existing infrastructure is optimized for the free movement of goods. When the rug gets pulled out from under that without a plan for how to get goods across the English Channel (i.e. after you're done creating leverage) there will undoubtedly be delays, which is why the UK food industry is stockpiling supplies and why the NHS is stockpiling medicine.

If foods get checked by customs agents or not really isn’t the end of the world. The trillions shifted around by all sides on the premise that Brexit unquestionably is happening in some form or another, a lot of which would be lost if that turns out not to be the case, that matters more than air.

In other words, "Won't someone think of the poor banks?"

Despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, I remember what happened to the banks and investment houses after the last major economic crisis, they were fine. They'll be fine this time, too.

In other words, "Won't someone think of the poor banks?"

Innit.

Despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, I remember what happened to the banks and investment houses after the last major economic crisis, they were fine. They'll be fine this time, too.

Indeed.  The public paid the bill for the banks (and is still paying), and the public will pay the bill for Brexit (and is already paying).

So it goes.   

If foods get checked by customs agents or not really isn’t the end of the world. The trillions shifted around by all sides on the premise that Brexit unquestionably is happening in some form or another, a lot of which would be lost if that turns out not to be the case, that matters more than air.

Just the same as the UK already does. The UK and a few other solvent EU countries, increased their trade with non-EU countries years ago when the EU lost their 20% share of the world market and that is still shrinking. Northern EU countries don't like the protectionism of the EU. Something like 55% of non-EU trade now for the UK? However, the EU imposes large tariffs on these non-EU companies and that  fee must be given to Brussels (the EU).

I’m quite certain the trade agreement opportunities with the rest of the world are neither lacking in imagination nor scared of change. Sticking to a bloc with stagnant growth because we’re scared of competing in the big free world is a bad plan and scared of change.

A few people seem to think that trade will stop if they are no trade agreements, but WTO rules kick in. Many countries trade under WTO rules anyway and don't use trade agreements e.g. the US and EU.

WTO also means that countries can decide not to put a tariff on something from that country. e.g. outside the EU the UK could put: a 10% tariff on French wine sellers but no tariff on wine from the US; 12% tariff on imported cars from Germany (the UK is their biggest export market)  but zero tariff on cars from Japan; 70% tariff on meat from the EU but zero tariff on meat from New Zealand etc. Or have tariff free trade deals with other countries. The UK would no longer have to agree to the EU practice of live animals being imported to the UK from the EU for slaughter, so that could be labelled as "British meat".

The EU also keeps food price high in the EU by paying EU  farmers not to produce: anyone remember the butter mountain mistake? That money comes from the EU CAP budget, which is one of the funds that is fully funded by the EU budget and the CAP is 40% of that entire budget. The UK taxpayer is either the biggest contributor to the EU budget every year, or the second biggest contributor to that budget every year. Just in that EU budget alone, the UK gives between 12 or 15 billion pounds a year for the EU to then give to other EU countries. Most UK farmers would rather be farming their land.

TL/Dr

People on the continent do everything wrong.

English people are always right.

Prices will go up. Especially for food. That's going to hurt people, some of them very badly.

Of course it's not whether or not things are checked, it's how long it takes for the checks to be done. Logistics, you see, are critically important, especially in an economy where many businesses rely on the frictionless movement of goods across borders. The existing infrastructure is optimized for the free movement of goods. When the rug gets pulled out from under that without a plan for how to get goods across the English Channel (i.e. after you're done creating leverage) there will undoubtedly be delays, which is why the UK food industry is stockpiling supplies and why the NHS is stockpiling medicine.

In other words, "Won't someone think of the poor banks?"

Despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, I remember what happened to the banks and investment houses after the last major economic crisis, they were fine. They'll be fine this time, too.

Yeah literally just don’t check it. If there is no guard and no checkpoint then that doesn’t mean trucks pull over and wait for it to be built. It means they just keep driving. So what. The UK has total control of that part of the process. They can be as lax in enforcement as is necessary to sustain flow as infrastructure is standing up. That really is not a concern on the inbound leg. It is the outbound leg where inspectors on the other side can manufacture delays that is a problem.

But logistics man, seriously. The guy that ran all logistics for the first two years of the Iraq war, just massive logistics activity, has 30 years of experience, not 12 people in the world with his qualifications and he knows all of them... that guy works for me. My senior project manager did all sorts of advanced logistics certification and activity in the military, so did even our CFO. We’ve moved more than the GDP of some smallish countries. There’s a small contract now, 11 teams of 3 doing 12m miles. And we’re not primarily a logistics company. But I mean, just the most brilliant thing would be to lecture me about logistics.

The US is no less dependent on the free flow of goods from Mexico, where billions cross that border daily. No less dependent on just in time supply of parts from China, Korea, everywhere. And that stuff happens with no problems. I don’t know how often you’ve been pulled out for a flight and thoroughly searched. Probably not much right? That’s how often customs inspectors actually inspect. Otherwise they just receive a bill of lading and charge the carrier or sender as appropriate. And it those things are needed on the other side more than precise collection of import taxes, then their enforcement loosens up to meet the task.

Into that mix, there is a whole rest of the world ready and waiting to meet any deficit in supply. You can have rock lobsters from Australia on your table less than 24hrs after they’re pulled out of the ocean and for a price not much different than what’s already available. You can have food supplies from the US by the truckload to every outlet in the UK, as fast as UK domestic trucking can carry it, at airports in less than a day and at ports in about 2wks. We did the freakin Berlin airlift, not to mention dodging subs to keep the UK fed through WW2. You don’t think we can do business as usual when a new customer comes on the market?

Retail vendors are concerned about those two weeks to a month before the market has time to fully adjust. Manufacturers are more worried cause they’re not ordering fungible goods & will have a longer adjustment period as either they or a new supplier retools.

There might be shortages of champagne, Prosecco, Spanish olives, Belgian beer... all things I like. But no one will be in danger of not getting the necessities they need. Critical supplies can go by air, and that really doesn’t cost as much as you think.

It’s not just banks that have this priced in. It’s pension plans, it’s every company that’s regiggered staff and assets for the contingency, every distributor & manufacturer. Everyone has priced in that this is happening in some form. At minimum they have the sunk cost they spent on those changes and the costs to undue them, but a lot a lot of folks have bet the company on absolute assurance this is happening. If it doesn’t, they’re done. And yes the banks. I don’t know if you understand what happens when the debt market collapses but the world stops. It would be a cascading and cataclysmic collapse. But banks are just intermediaries. You see a few big middle men who came through the financial crisis alive but still today trying to heal. You don’t see their capital sources that were wiped out or the cascade beyond banking that suffered and still are. That stuff isn’t going to be permitted to happen.


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Yeah literally just don’t check it. If there is no guard and no checkpoint then that doesn’t mean trucks pull over and wait for it to be built. It means they just keep driving. So what.

"Hey, people of Britain, remember how y'all voted for tighter border controls? Because you were worried about all the immigrants and terrorists coming over from Europe?

Well we've decided to tighten the border by just letting all the stuff from Europe come in without doing any checks on it at all. That's cool, right?"

Good plan, dude. You should be a politician.

It is the outbound leg where inspectors on the other side can manufacture delays that is a problem.

Hmmmmmm, I think you might have buried the lede in your big word salad there.

But logistics man, seriously. The guy that ran all logistics for the first two years of the Iraq war, just massive logistics activity, has 30 years of experience, not 12 people in the world with his qualifications and he knows all of them... that guy works for me.

You mean the Iraq war where soldiers had to up armor their own Humvees with scrap metal they scrounged because - as Donald Rumsfeld put it - "You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want"? That logistics guy?

I don't think I'd be bragging about that.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/17/uk/brexit-week-chaos-gbr-intl/index.html is an interesting look at Brexit from the outside.

No.  The MEPs are elected to the Parliament.  They do take part in the elections - the President of the Commission has to be acceptable to a majority - but the candidates for President of the Commission are put forward by the Council. 

Far from random.  All Member States are equal, but some are more equal than others.  Particularly France and Germany of course.

The EC is not democratically elected, is the long and the short of it.   EU citizens do not elect the people who run the EU.

Am I missing something?  All the MEPs are elected.  And the commisionmers are elected as well?  Then how come Sirius and other people keep saying they are unelected officials making the rules?  And how can you say "EU citizens do not elect the people who run the EU."  Who is doing the voting then if not EU citizens?

Open Borders?  Cool! Maybe we can get some of that Chinese baby food, I hear it's way cheaper.