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Topic: Wuhan virus  (Read 12990 times)

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Wuhan virus
« on: January 30, 2020, 05:08:03 AM »
Even for five in the morning, I'm unusually muddled and somewhat disturbed, as I was always told that my grandfather died in the 1918 flu epidemic and so the term "pandemic" sets off all kinds of alarm bells for me. (Turned out to not be the case, it was TB a few years later, but still....)

I've been watching the extensive news coverage of the new virus running amok in China.  From what I see, the virus is: 1) is novel (possibly jumping the species barrier from bats?), so humans have no immunity; highly contagious; can be transmitted via airborne contact or by touch; has a latency period of up to two weeks before symptoms, but typically pops up after about 3 days; and, is communicable before symptoms begin to show. It can range in severity from almost no symptoms to fatality.  So far the fatality rate is running about 2%. (?)

I also understand that the face masks people are wearing are pretty much useless unless they are tightly-fitted and of a filtering density similar to that used by doctors in operating rooms. So the OTC ones from the local drug store are probably pretty useless, except to calm nerves. And you are supposed to only wear a mask once, then securely bin it. And that actually wearing the surgery-grade masks can only be for a relatively short period of time (not 24 hours a day), due to low-oxygen concerns. And that, as with all viruses, antibiotics are useless - they only fight bacterial illness. So, it's stay otherwise healthy and consider getting religion to avoid becoming a statistic. Or go live on a mountain top.

Last year in the USA the CDC estimates that influenza killed about half of the older (over 65) people who  were hospitalized. The stats for 2017/18 are worse - unless I'm reading them wrong, it looks like almost everyone over 65 hospitalized died? (And 10% of those over 50?) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html and https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm  (Surely I'm misreading these stats? Those numbers are ghastly.) I know there were news reports about waves of influenza on TV - there are every year - but nothing like the coverage this new virus is getting. Even with my penchant for thinking the news likes to sensationalize things to get viewers, countries airlifting diplomatic personnel out says that's not exactly the case here.

The Wuhan is appearing to be a particularly nasty bug. Has anyone seen which group is getting hit hardest? All I've seen is that the fatalities seem to be clustered in that group of people who already have health issues "that involved weakened immune systems, like hypertension, diabetes or cardiovascular disease." And that, so far, the mortality rate is an aggregate 2%, with about 25% of the cases becoming severe enough to require hospitalization for support. Is it pneumonia that's setting in that's killing people, or is it that immune-mediated lung inflammation thing that drowns you (as was the case in the 1918 epidemic)? While there is no "better" re: death like that, it's better overall if it's the former scenario (where there's a fighting chance to keep one alive) than the latter (where, aside from steroids, there pretty much isn't). Especially for those of us who have already had a go-round with over-active immune responses in the lungs.


So, to humor those who have a penchant for such things: plagues of locusts [check mark]; earthquakes [check mark]; famine [ditto]; war [yup]; and, now, pestilence. What we now need is a nice supernova to appear in the sky, to see all those types off with the "see, signs in the heavens!" schtick.


« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 05:24:24 AM by Nan D. »


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2020, 05:16:11 AM »
What we now need is a nice supernova to appear in the sky, to see all those types off with the "see, signs in the heavens!" schtick.

Not that I want to encourage what reads like a possibly unhealthy obsession with the news  :), but there is this:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/25/world/betelgeuse-star-dimming-scn-trnd/index.html


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2020, 05:21:48 AM »
Not that I want to encourage what reads like a possibly unhealthy obsession with the news  :), but there is this:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/25/world/betelgeuse-star-dimming-scn-trnd/index.html

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2020, 07:46:03 AM »
Not that I want to encourage what reads like a possibly unhealthy obsession with the news  :), but there is this:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/25/world/betelgeuse-star-dimming-scn-trnd/index.html

It's a sign;D


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2020, 08:23:06 AM »
Nan, masks of any type can help reduce transmission of viruses and bacteria from the sick person by keeping the particulate when you cough from getting airborne in the first place. In places like China where many people where them, it is more to slow transmission than anything. My mask is rated for protection from these things, but better than that it helps remind me not to eat things when out and about because people are mostly infected by something being picked up on your hands and then eating or rubbing your eyes without washing them first. I wash my hands so much. I'm sure there's a percentage of airborne transmission, but by touch is still probably more effective.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk



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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2020, 11:44:57 PM »
So, I still don't "get" it. Why the mass hysteria and panic over Wuhan? What are we not being told? If nothing is being withheld, then why is influenza pretty much out of the news and replaced by coverage of Wuhan almost exclusively?

Influenza in the USA this season, since Oct 1  [from ABC news]:  So far, 10,000 people have died and 180,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC. "The flu season began early this year and took off aggressively," added [Dr. William Schaffner, medical director for the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases Schaffner]. "It began prominently in the southeastern states but quickly spread. So far, there is no sign that the momentum of the annual epidemic is slowing."

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-people-died-flu-year/story?id=67754182&cid=clicksource_4380645_2_heads_hero_live_headlines_hed
« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 11:47:50 PM by Nan D. »


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2020, 06:02:06 AM »
So, I still don't "get" it. Why the mass hysteria and panic over Wuhan? What are we not being told? If nothing is being withheld, then why is influenza pretty much out of the news and replaced by coverage of Wuhan almost exclusively?

'Regular flu that has existed forever mostly behaving like we have every year' vs 'NEW DEADLY UNKNOWN VIRUS KILLING PEOPLE IN DARKEST CHINA MAKING IT'S WAY ACROSS THE PLANET JUST LIKE THEY DO IN THE MOVIES!!!!'

Which one of those would be more likely to make you watch the news?


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2020, 11:29:45 AM »
Here Nan, proof you have nothing to fear


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2020, 11:30:30 AM »
Regular deadly events don't make the news because they are commonplace and don't sell papers or attract readers. If the flu, gun deaths or car fatalities, each amounting to 10's of thousands per year happened on the same day then it would be news.

An airplane crash killing 200 people is big news no matter where in the world it happens yet over 30,000 people are killed on the roads in the USA alone every single year, but it is hardly ever mentioned because it is a mere 100 deaths per day, every day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

In 2017 almost 40,000 people in the USA died from gun related injuries but that's not news because it is commonplace and only mass shootings are news worthy.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/16/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-u-s/

It's the same for flu related deaths, if people were really concerned they would go out and get a flu jab every flu season but the media don't hype up the dangers of flu enough.  For comparison with Coronavirus we should really be looking at worldwide figures.

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Quote
Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that's higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.

The new figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other groups were published Dec. 13 in The Lancet medical journal.

The updated numbers, which do not include deaths during flu pandemics, are based on more recent data from a larger and more diverse group of countries than the previous estimate, the CDC said.
Dual USC/UKC living in the UK since May 2016


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2020, 04:15:45 PM »
I had a flu shot this year for the first time. I'm healthy and active. But....I play golf.... https://golfsupport.com/blog/sports-related-injuries-golf-more-dangerous-than-rugby/
Fred


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2020, 06:25:44 PM »
I had a flu shot this year for the first time. I'm healthy and active. But....I play golf.... https://golfsupport.com/blog/sports-related-injuries-golf-more-dangerous-than-rugby/

Thank you for that!  It's all about the herd.  My son was in a vulnerable category last year and caught the flu, which developed into pneumonia.  We spent a miserable two weeks (on holiday) in the hospital.  Was a very scary time.  A flu shot would have prevented the whole experience.


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2020, 09:10:07 PM »
Thank you for that!  It's all about the herd.  My son was in a vulnerable category last year and caught the flu, which developed into pneumonia.  We spent a miserable two weeks (on holiday) in the hospital.  Was a very scary time.  A flu shot would have prevented the whole experience.
A flu shot MIGHT have prevented things. From what I understand.....it improves your odds of not getting the flu, but doesn't guarantee it. I'm 62 and the flu never really bothered me all my life. Last year I had a coughing illness from hell at the end of October and what I think was a version of flu at Christmas. I've never really been sick so I said what the hell this year and got the jab. I figure it wouldn't hurt.....and might just help.
Fred


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2020, 09:18:40 PM »
A flu shot MIGHT have prevented things. From what I understand.....it improves your odds of not getting the flu, but doesn't guarantee it. I'm 62 and the flu never really bothered me all my life. Last year I had a coughing illness from hell at the end of October and what I think was a version of flu at Christmas. I've never really been sick so I said what the hell this year and got the jab. I figure it wouldn't hurt.....and might just help.

That's right. By getting the shot you are giving yourself (and those around you) the best chance.


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2020, 12:39:00 PM »
A flu shot MIGHT have prevented things. From what I understand.....it improves your odds of not getting the flu, but doesn't guarantee it. I'm 62 and the flu never really bothered me all my life. Last year I had a coughing illness from hell at the end of October and what I think was a version of flu at Christmas. I've never really been sick so I said what the hell this year and got the jab. I figure it wouldn't hurt.....and might just help.

Except it was a known strain (why he tested positive) and all of us who had the flu shot stayed healthy.  There is no question in my mind that had he been vaccinated he wouldn’t have fallen so ill,


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Re: Wuhan virus
« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2020, 01:42:43 PM »
Except it was a known strain (why he tested positive) and all of us who had the flu shot stayed healthy.  There is no question in my mind that had he been vaccinated he wouldn’t have fallen so ill,
If he was in a vulnerable category, why didn't you get him a flu jab? I don't know how accurate it is, but WebMD states that the flu jab increases your odds of NOT getting the flu by 60%.....I thought it would be a bit higher, maybe 80%.
Fred


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