It's going to be a long week. Trump is already claiming to have won and is trying to stop any further counting of legitimate votes. My guess is he's going to have Trump, Jr. , call out the brownshirts among them as he did in Texas. (Convoys of bubbas in trucks forced the Democratic Party's road bus off the I-35 and some of their trucks rammed the Demo's convoy's cars after Tjr suggested they go "have some fun".) It will get ugly before it's over.
Anyway, Biden is ahead in the popular vote, which means nothing, as of about 22:30 your time 4 Nov. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but lost the election due to having the votes in the wrong states - not enough Electoral College votes behind her. Just for those who are not clear on how Presidential elections work in the USA:
In the United States, the Electoral College refers to the group of presidential electors required by the United States Constitution to form every four years for the sole purpose of electing the president and vice president of the United States. Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the Constitution provides that each state shall appoint electors selected in a manner its legislature determines, and it disqualifies any person holding a federal office, either elected or appointed, from being an elector. There are currently 538 electors, and an absolute majority of electoral votes, 270 or more, is required to win the election. Currently, all states rely on a statewide popular vote on Election Day, and all but two have a winner-take-all method to assign their electoral votes, with the exceptions being Maine and Nebraska, which use a district method. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_CollegeBiden is projected to have 243 Electoral College votes as of now, so he needs 27 more to win. Trump has 214, so he needs 56 more.
One of the candidates has to get 270 electoral votes to be declared a clear winner. If neither gets 270, it goes to the House of Representatives, who will vote and the outcome of that vote will decide the winner. The winner needs only a simple majority in the House to be declared a winner. There are 232 Democrats v 197 Republicans (and 1 Libertarian and 5 vacancies) in the House of Representatives.
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The states that are pretty much still in question, per Reuters, (followed by their number of Electoral College members) are:
Nevada - 6
Arizona - 11
Wisconsin - 10
Michigan - 16
Pennsylvania - 20
North Carolina -15
Georgia - 16
At present, according to Reuters, Biden is being projected to take the first four, while the last three are leaning to Trump. There are still a lot of ballots to be counted, but if Biden takes some combination of the first four states to equal at least 27, he'll have the 270 and wins. If he does not, and if Trump doesn't get 56 more Electoral College votes, it goes to the House for a simple majority vote. And Biden will win.
I will sleep much better tonight than I did last night. (Even with the pain meds, I couldn't sleep worth a damn - kept having to turn the TV on every half hour!) But it's still not a done deal and when counting mail votes, anything could still change.
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