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Topic: COVID  (Read 45281 times)

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Re: COVID
« Reply #960 on: December 23, 2022, 12:44:56 PM »
I think everyone "lied" about the death rate. Looking back in 100 years I would imagine they'll say it's probably twice what they are saying it is now. Hell, in the US there are some places where families persuaded the coroner to put anything OTHER than Covid on the death certificate. Why they did that (either the family or the coroner) is beyond me, but... whatever. The dearly departed wasn't going to argue the point.

China, on the other hand, has mastered the art of fudging stats to an entirely new level. They seem to just basically make them up as they go along.



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Re: COVID
« Reply #961 on: December 23, 2022, 06:26:06 PM »
I think everyone "lied" about the death rate. Looking back in 100 years I would imagine they'll say it's probably twice what they are saying it is now. Hell, in the US there are some places where families persuaded the coroner to put anything OTHER than Covid on the death certificate. Why they did that (either the family or the coroner) is beyond me, but... whatever. The dearly departed wasn't going to argue the point.

China, on the other hand, has mastered the art of fudging stats to an entirely new level. They seem to just basically make them up as they go along.

Whatever the countries reported stats are it is undeniable that the death rate from people contracting Omicron variants is much lower  than either  the original or Delta strains of the disease. All I was saying is that I hope the strains ripping through China now are less deadly variants of the disease.
Dual USC/UKC living in the UK since May 2016


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Re: COVID
« Reply #962 on: December 23, 2022, 09:11:20 PM »
For a little Christmas Cheer (from Eric Topol's latest newsletter)

New York is the bellwether for what is happening with XBB.1.5 and it doesn’t look good with a marked rise in hospitalizations, especially among seniors, in recent weeks as this variant has been taking hold. Of course, other factors are likely contributing such as waning of immunity, indoor/holiday gatherings, cold weather, lack of mitigation. But it is noteworthy that New York’s Covid hospital admission rate is the highest since late January (and also exceeds the summer 2021 Delta wave, but with some ambiguity as to how hospitalization were categorized then and now).

So we don’t know for sure how much of this is being driven by XBB.1.5, but it doesn’t look favorable. It is at the very least contributing—too much of a coincidence to see such a striking rise of the variant along with New York’s data. But only time will tell in the weeks ahead in contiguous states with XBB dominance how this will play out.

Apparently we old farts are getting hit much harder than younger people, even with vaccinations being taken into consideration.

So the fat lady not only hasn't started singing, she's not even anywhere near the building yet.  :(


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Re: COVID
« Reply #963 on: December 31, 2022, 01:28:19 PM »
I was out and about for Christmas, meeting people from Spain and visiting people in France.  Everyone had a "cold" and nobody was testing for Covid.  My personal experience says it's spreading everywhere, probably just as fast as China.   I really can't see any other option at this point other than to just let it spread. 


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Re: COVID
« Reply #964 on: December 31, 2022, 01:44:20 PM »
I was out and about for Christmas, meeting people from Spain and visiting people in France.  Everyone had a "cold" and nobody was testing for Covid.  My personal experience says it's spreading everywhere, probably just as fast as China.   I really can't see any other option at this point other than to just let it spread.

This past week our son, then our daughter, have come with a “cold”,  although our daughter became pretty sick, slight fever, vomiting and lots of aches and pains so probably flu. We still have plenty of Covid tests in the house (she is staying with us) so she did a test and negative. This morning she is much improved and obviously on the mend so that is a relief. Her partner now has the sore throat and cough both she and our son started with so I expect that whatever it is, it is coming our way. At least we know it is not Covid.
Dual USC/UKC living in the UK since May 2016


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Re: COVID
« Reply #965 on: December 31, 2022, 02:39:18 PM »
Good on you folks for testing.  :) That way you have some way to know if you are risking spreading it to others.    Covid has been shown in quite a few studies to damage the immune system, and repeated infections damage it further. So it's not surprising that people are having wicked colds, strep infections, etc., to a degree that previously wouldn't have been considered "normal". (Nothing new with this virus on that front. Measles pretty much wipes the immune system memory. Although I ~ think ~ with Covid it's not so much a wiping of immune memory, but a damaging of the production of T cells that's hurting the most people at present.)

I wince when thinking of all those parents who thought that it's "not serious in children" because they seemed to only have mild symptoms at the time and who took no or minimal mitigating actions. Adults whose actions brought it on themselves I have less empathy for. But adults are supposed to be doing whatever is necessary to keep children safe, so.... yeah. I'm sure they'll find a way to rationalize their way around it all, should the children end up suffering in the long term for their stupidity.

Covid causes havoc within the bodies of a lot of people, and from what reputable studies I've read it appears that the damage there is also cumulative.  We will, if that holds true, be seeing more cases of diabetes, more people dead before their time of heart and vascular issues, more people with kidney damage, neurological issues, and on, down the road. I would expect that the general public will find a way to ignore that, as well. Unless it happens to them or a loved one. And, of course, the public will howl if they have to pay more in taxes to provide the needed supports for those people who need the extra help or care.

The local variant here is particularly hard on older people. They haven't quite figured out what's going on with that, but even when vaccine status is taken into consideration, older people are dropping from it more than expected. Apparently, and I'm a little fuzzy on the exact stats, but even fully immunized and boosted people over 50 (60?) are having vaccine efficiency in the 30% range, and even that protection drops off more quickly than in younger people. People don't want to hear it - they're tired of Covid - so even the older folks around here aren't masking. They've hit the "well, if it kills me, it kills me" stage. Sorry, I'm not ready to go yet.  >:(   And their actions have a direct impact on what I can and cannot safely do, on a daily basis.

The more people who have any variant, the more chance of a nasty mutation. The more of a lid that can be kept on the spread, the less chance of that happening. Let it run wild, which is easier of course, and you take your chances. And everyone else's with you.  I resent other people taking (or not taking) actions that threaten my welfare and the welfare of my daughter. But there's not a lot I can do about that, other than expect it. A lot of people will always take the road that is less inconvenient for them. The "oh well, there's nothing I can do about it" so they stop doing anything at all - like testing and masking and keeping environmentally safe air filtration going.

Of course, all testing/masking/air filtration is only buying time for researchers to sort out how to combat the virus.  I've never believed we can "mitigate" forever. But I certainly hoped people would have continued to do so for long enough for a realistic, effective treatment to be developed and for the contagion itself to be boxed in - as was done with polio, ebola, MERS, etc.   And yes, I do think they'll figure out how to neutralize it to an extent much greater than we have now. At least with polio we had the advantage that many fewer people were traveling great distances as they do now. The battlefield has changed, to that extent.

Be that as it may,  it doesn't seem logical to be putting restrictions on people coming in from China a couple of weeks after it's run wild. (Talk about closing the barn door after the horse has run away!!)  My assumption is that they're wanting to monitor for new variants. But if the tests are being done IN China there's not going to be a realistic way of knowing that.  The Chinese government seems, to put this as mildly as I can, to be hesitant to share information with the rest of the world, officially. So it looks more like window-dressing to me. Doing something publicly so it looks as if they are on duty, and all that. Unless there is a variant they know about. But again,  testing IN China for passengers leaving isn't going to get them much info. So... I'm not clear on the usefulness, other than as previously stated.


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Re: COVID
« Reply #966 on: December 31, 2022, 10:51:56 PM »
Sadly new variants have mutations that mean some tests are no longer accurate. But in the US they also have tests that include flu a and b! So at least you can quickly know if you're dealing with the flu and get the correct antivirals if immune compromised. In the UK even with a positive test immunocompromised people are currently being denied antivirals, they can't be prescribed by a GP and the service that has to prescribe them just isn't. More people will die than should yet again and there's no media coverage on it right now.

The assumption should be if you're feeling hellish that it is one of covid/flu/RSV which no one wants and can still be deadly. Wear good quality masks for 10 days minimum and avoid crowded indoor areas til feeling better even if a test is negative.

Source for variants evading tests: https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/sars-cov-2-viral-mutations-impact-covid-19-tests

Sent from my Pixel 6a using Tapatalk



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Re: COVID
« Reply #967 on: January 01, 2023, 04:42:43 PM »
This may also be of interest - he does a simple explanation of what it is Covid is doing as far as immunity goes. It's a few months old, but I believe it's still accurate.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1573772566346567680.html

LATE EDIT:  https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)01531-8?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS0092867422015318%3Fshowall%3Dtrue

The BQ and XBB [that's us here in the NE USA] subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron are now rapidly expanding, possibly due to altered antibody evasion properties deriving from their additional spike mutations. Here, we report that neutralization of BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 by sera from vaccinees and infected persons was markedly impaired, including sera from individuals boosted with a WA1/BA.5 bivalent mRNA vaccine. Titers against BQ and XBB subvariants were lower by 13- to 81-fold and 66- to 155-fold, respectively, far beyond what had been observed to date. Monoclonal antibodies capable of neutralizing the original Omicron variant were largely inactive against these new subvariants, and the responsible individual spike mutations were identified. These subvariants were found to have similar ACE2-binding affinities as their predecessors. Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2023, 02:32:18 AM by Nan D. »


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Re: COVID
« Reply #968 on: February 01, 2023, 05:16:37 PM »
In response to a Washington Post article claiming covid numbers were overblown in the USA, a letter to the editor by the Chief Medical Officer of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/30/covid-deaths-not-overcounted-us/

   

We are not overcounting covid deaths in the United States.

Covid-19 deaths are not being overcounted in the United States. However, we see how there can be some confusion in understanding how covid death data is collected and reported, especially compared with hospitalization data.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gathers data on deaths in multiple ways, including daily reports from health departments, which give the earliest look at trends in deaths. The most reliable way CDC gathers data on covid deaths is through provisional covid death counts based solely on death certificates, which take a bit more time to collect and report. When comparing deaths reported in these two systems, we see similar trends, which gives us confidence in their accuracy.

The CDC has detailed guidance on reporting covid deaths, outlined in the National Vital Statistics System’s Guidance for Certifying Deaths Due to Coronavirus Disease. This guidance clearly states that covid should be included on a death certificate only if it directly caused or contributed to a patient’s death.

The CDC is clear that hospitalization data displayed in agency reporting includes all people testing positive for the coronavirus, regardless of reason for hospital admission. Therefore, covid hospitalization data includes patients who were hospitalized because of covid, patients who were hospitalized for another condition that was likely made worse by having covid and patients who were hospitalized for reasons unrelated to the virus but tested positive while hospitalized.

Accurate, transparent and accessible data is critical to our understanding of any illness, outbreak or public health threat. The CDC has made great strides in making timely and transparent data available.

More than 1 million people have died in the United States from covid. Each one of these deaths is a tragic loss that should be remembered as a person, not a statistic.

Debra Houry, Atlanta



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