Author Topic: Uh oh  (Read 416 times)

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Offline Nan D.

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Uh oh
« on: December 04, 2017, 10:46:52 AM »
I remember writing on this board that I wouldn't start feeling tooooo nervous about North Korea until the security level at my old local Marine Corps base was raised and they started pulling military dependents out of South Korea. So far, as far as I know, the threat level at the base is not at the highest level. However, this is in the news now....

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/gop-senator-time-military-families-leave-skorea-51547216

So, if it becomes official policy, I will officially worry more. At present, my instincts are that things could go wonky around Christmas, but, hey, I'm a paranoid soul.

Offline jfkimberly

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Re: Uh oh
« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2017, 12:14:30 PM »
At present, my instincts are that things could go wonky around Christmas, but, hey, I'm a paranoid soul.

I had the same thought.  After this last missile's range was revealed, I thought Christmas would be a likely time if NK wanted to surprise the US.  I'm not sure how high I would estimate the likelihood.  But I feel like you don't let your people starve to pursue a weapons program to NOT use the weapons.
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Offline jimbocz

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Re: Uh oh
« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2017, 01:54:30 PM »
I had the same thought.  After this last missile's range was revealed, I thought Christmas would be a likely time if NK wanted to surprise the US.  I'm not sure how high I would estimate the likelihood.  But I feel like you don't let your people starve to pursue a weapons program to NOT use the weapons.
North Korea will use those weapons in exactly the same way that the US and Israel does, to project power on the international stage.  For NK to acquire nuclear weapons is perfectly rational, even at the cost of starving their citizens. 

I'm afraid there's only one side that's acting irrationally in this conflict and it's us.  Unless Trump does something insane, I think you guys are worrying unnecessarily.

Offline jfkimberly

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Re: Uh oh
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2017, 02:23:28 PM »
Unless Trump does something insane, ...

Unless?  Trump acting insanely isn't a foregone conclusion?
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Offline Nan D.

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Re: Uh oh
« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2017, 12:06:06 AM »
Seriously, I can't put "sane" and "Trump" in the same sentence in a positive way.
And worrying is what I do. It's genetic.
Come to think of it, the right shift in Europe seems like something I've seen before in a movie... or two... or three.... :o ;)

Offline vadio

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Re: Uh oh
« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2017, 07:42:08 AM »
Unless?  Trump acting insanely isn't a foregone conclusion?

Unfortunately, the only question is the extent of his insane actions.....how far WILL he go to boost his fragile little ego....
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Offline Nan D.

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Re: Uh oh
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2017, 09:36:40 AM »
And will his generals follow his orders?  There will be at least some who would not implement "the red button" option.

Offline camoscato

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Re: Uh oh
« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2017, 10:13:33 AM »
And will his generals follow his orders?  There will be at least some who would not implement "the red button" option.

I read an interesting article recently (https://www.vox.com/world/2017/11/17/16656856/trump-congress-nuclear-weapons-war) that said the participation of the rest of the chain of command would depend on whether it was the generals going to the president to request an attack, or if it was the president going to the generals to request an attack. The article outlined two scenarios:

1. There's an incoming nuclear attack detected by US early warning systems. The military would inform the president, present options, and he'd have a few minutes to confer with his national security team and make a decision. This is the scenario contemplated for most of the cold war.

In this scenario there wouldn't be much dissent from the military if the president ordered a nuclear strike, because it would be the military offering the nuclear option in retaliation for a nuclear attack, which would fit in with existing policy regarding the use of nuclear weapons. Plus, there wouldn't be a lot of time for discussion, as the incoming missiles would arrive in about 30 minutes.

2. The second scenario is if the president gets mad at something somebody said on Twitter (or something else equally stupid) and calls up the military and says he wants to initiate a nuclear attack.

In this scenario, without the time pressure of an incoming attack or any other military threat to the US, it's thought that the national security team and the generals at the Pentagon would ask a lot of questions and try to reign in the president's stupidity. It's under this scenario, too, that the article envisioned a lot of people resigning rather than carrying out the orders to start a nuclear war.