Brexit

 If the UK blunders out with a hard Brexit and doesn't pay the divorce bill, it risks being a pariah with no credibility on the world stage for decades.

The EU rules, their own Article 50, says that when a country leaves the EU, then all obligations end. If say Poland left the EU, do you thing the EU would continue to pay them the 10 billion every year they need or "risk being a pariah with no credibility on the world stage for decades"? Why would the UK give the EU 39 billion of UK taxpayers money, when that money can be used for national interests instead?

It was always, it is everything or nothing on Brexit: the 39 billion the EU needs; the future of the millions of EEA citizenss and non-EEA citizens who are in the UK/still coming to the UK using EEA rules or ECJ Rulings and the 1 million British citizens using free movement in the other 27 EEA countries (those who can't get ctiizenship of that country for whatever reason); a trade deal.

To date, only Spain has said that Brits can remain there after Brexit, so at least their citizens in the UK and Brits in Spain will be OK. 1 in 4 of EEA citizens using free movement, came to the UK, but only Spain has safeguarded their citizens

So, that’s say 70-80% of the country that will hate whoever the PM is at that moment.

At this point with a government, the opposition party would  be at least 15 points ahead in the polls, but Labour are trailling behind! It's completly different to the norm and nodody likes May as a PM!

France are keeping to the trend, but Macron is now showing as one of the least popular presidents France have ever had. Marcron's support in France, has now dropped to half that of Trunp in the US.

Sure you can have all the skilled migrant tiers you want, but in the end, the housing is crap and industry can't afford to match your salary, why on gods GREEN earth would you choose a job in the UK? The exceptional tier tends to be for top top scientists and Oscar winners but hey, why would they come here when richer countries that don't have a populace that actively hate them GUESS WHAT also have similar tiers? Or have further developed centers of research and industry with other top scientists? And do inform me how the UK government is going to make up research funding it has now lost that the EU was supporting, wholly or in part, because now they have to shore up the NHS. And welsh farmers. And however many other areas the UK government has left in the dust for dead. Or will just importing a bunch of Filipino nurses at below minimum wage solve all problems?

You can't reason with stupid so Im done with this thread. You can sit on your high horse all you want and loathe my presence in this country because I took fair advantage of the law but Im not the one who will be sitting in a cold drafty shitbox in the near and long term future.

The exceptional tier tends to be for top top scientists and Oscar winners but hey, why would they come here when richer countries that don't have a populace that actively hate them GUESS WHAT also have similar tiers?



You can't reason with stupid so Im done with this thread.

The UK have recently doubled the number of Exceptional Talent visas, due to the demand. It's on the government site as well as in quality papers, known by top employers and exceptional talent candidates etc

You can sit on your high horse all you want and loathe my presence in this country because I took fair advantage of the law

I don't loathe your presence. As long as your EEA citizen sponsor was following the EEA Regulations of being a " qualified person" at all times, then his non-EEA citizen "Direct Family Members" are lawfully in the UK.

Sure you can have all the skilled migrant tiers you want, but in the end, the housing is crap and industry can't afford to match your salary, why on gods GREEN earth would you choose a job in the UK? The exceptional tier tends to be for top top scientists and Oscar winners but hey, why would they come here when richer countries that don't have a populace that actively hate them GUESS WHAT also have similar tiers? Or have further developed centers of research and industry with other top scientists? And do inform me how the UK government is going to make up research funding it has now lost that the EU was supporting, wholly or in part, because now they have to shore up the NHS. And welsh farmers. And however many other areas the UK government has left in the dust for dead. Or will just importing a bunch of Filipino nurses at below minimum wage solve all problems?

You can't reason with stupid so Im done with this thread. You can sit on your high horse all you want and loathe my presence in this country because I took fair advantage of the law but Im not the one who will be sitting in a cold drafty shitbox in the near and long term future.

Goodness, Bertine, don't hold back! Tell us exactly how you feel. 

I have to say in also parting from this thread that I hope that EU and other foreign nationals will be able to stay in the UK if they wish. But at least they do have the option to move on to greener pastures if popular opinion in the UK sinks even farther into ethnocentricity than it has. Single-nationality UK citizens are going to be stuck here with whatever may come, and will have to live through it, so one can only hope the outcome is good for their sakes.  The Scots I've met while living here have been lovely people, and I'd hate to see them suffer.

At this point, I do think the PM is delusional and someone(s) really need to replace her before she does any more damage by hard Brexiting and having the country not honor its financial obligations. If that means Boris-of-the-Bad-Hair (jeez, what a choice!), well... then there definitely will be an independent Scotland before  the Daughter finishes her PhD. Wherever that PhD may be in progress. We'll be fine, wherever we end up. But I do worry about the friends we'd have to leave behind.

Troubling times, indeed.

I am interested in the emotion of all this.

Read the papers and this is what you see. And on forums.

What I see from Brexiters is that England is always right. Always the good guys. They need us. They are disrespectful. They are cheating us. A bit like the world cup.

Viewed from the other side, the picture is different isn't it? England was absolutely key in shaping the way the EU looks today. We are fully represented. Parliament, Council and Commission.

We then decide to make an ultimatum, do as we say or we will leave. When change is already allowed through EU institutions. Where we have our full representation.

This Chequers fiasco. May strolls in and again says take it or we walk.

Viewed from the other side, at some point, after years and years of this brinkmanship, you gotta say, "There's the door".

At this point with a government, the opposition party would  be at least 15 points ahead in the polls, but Labour are trailling behind! It's completly different to the norm and nodody likes May as a PM!

France are keeping to the trend, but Macron is now showing as one of the least popular presidents France have ever had. Marcron's support in France, has now dropped to half that of Trunp in the US.

It’s not a two party system where not being for one means being for the other. Each party is a broad coalition in which factions are often against each other and in favor of the party.

However, this PM in particular was selected solely to take the blame for everything Brexit, try to soften the blow checked by the real power, and then be replaced after Brexit is settled so she can go away as an unpopular incompetent ineffectual person who whiffed at a critical point. That would be the fate of anyone in the job through this process. The real power, whatever form that takes, will emerge after Brexit is final, when blame on her is high.


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Sure you can have all the skilled migrant tiers you want, but in the end, the housing is crap and industry can't afford to match your salary, why on gods GREEN earth would you choose a job in the UK? The exceptional tier tends to be for top top scientists and Oscar winners but hey, why would they come here when richer countries that don't have a populace that actively hate them GUESS WHAT also have similar tiers? Or have further developed centers of research and industry with other top scientists? And do inform me how the UK government is going to make up research funding it has now lost that the EU was supporting, wholly or in part, because now they have to shore up the NHS. And welsh farmers. And however many other areas the UK government has left in the dust for dead. Or will just importing a bunch of Filipino nurses at below minimum wage solve all problems?

You can't reason with stupid so Im done with this thread. You can sit on your high horse all you want and loathe my presence in this country because I took fair advantage of the law but Im not the one who will be sitting in a cold drafty shitbox in the near and long term future.

If the UK presently pays more into the EU than it gets back, then by definition it is capable of replicating all EU funding to the penny and having some left over.

That “some left over” is not enough to fix NHS, but literally no amount of money is capable of fixing the NHS. The economics of it have been broken from the start. It needs more money, but it needs massive reform even more. That’s a whole other conversation. At this point, the govt has the option to defund everything the EU gave money to and pour it all into NHS. Or maintain EU funding and give a slight bump to NHS. Or a huge range of options in between.

A lot of what you’re talking about as “left in the dust for dead” actually needs to die. When something becomes obsolete, you do not subsidize it out of nostalgia and thereby hope back the progress of society. In the long run, that most harms those getting the subsidy. Instead, those segments have to adapt and innovate or die. If that means Welsh farmers get replaced by industrialized farming or whatever (I don’t know what the deal is with welsh farmers), then that needs to happen as quickly as it reasonably can. So, in those areas, funding that used the come from the EU must be withdrawn & redirected at other priorities like r&d or nhs.

I do understand UK housing prices are stupidly high and wages are stupidly low by comparison to the US. The answer to that is not throw up your hands and surrender to a long slow death. The answer is to blow open the economy and try to claw back over time to a better place.

In the interim, it is a lot cheaper to pay £750/hr for a world leading mergers & acquisitions lawyer in London than $2000/hr to the clone of that person in NY. Or really, it’s most efficient for that NY partner to take the lead and farm the work to London associates making £80k rather than $180k. Same for investment bankers. Same for basically all professional services. If I can get top talent in the UK for less than I can get mediocre talent in Kansas City, then that’s very valuable. And it’s still a ton of high paying jobs driving the economy while the top end goes hunting further afield.

Housing prices have to come down, and that’ll happen as soon as they fix the idiotic regulation & tax structure in the UK. But, there’s also so much stored value in real estate that can’t crash without decimating the economy. Any fix has to be a long term incremental process of price declines slightly faster than inflation.

Housing prices have to come down, and that’ll happen as soon as they fix the idiotic regulation & tax structure in the UK. But, there’s also so much stored value in real estate that can’t crash without decimating the economy. Any fix has to be a long term incremental process of price declines slightly faster than inflation.

So much for free markets...

I think if you have a peek at this a little closer you will find reckless finance and misrepresented credit ratings at the heart.

So much for free markets...

I think if you have a peek at this a little closer you will find reckless finance and misrepresented credit ratings at the heart.

Maybe, but there’s also limited supply and infrastructure problems, plus massive regulatory barriers & tax deterrents.

A lot of that can be fixed pretty easily, but should be fixed at an incremental pace that allows the free market to function to bring down prices at a rate that won’t crash the economy. That’s how govt regulation is supposed to work. It should not change outcomes or pick winners and losers, but should try to smooth some of the transitions and shocks when it is efficient to do so.


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A lot of that can be fixed pretty easily, but should be fixed at an incremental pace that allows the free market to function to bring down prices at a rate that won’t crash the economy. That’s how govt regulation is supposed to work. It should not change outcomes or pick winners and losers, but should try to smooth some of the transitions and shocks when it is efficient to do so.

Blank cheques to banks are smoothing transitions? And it's not really the cheques is it? It is the knowledge that they will be bailed out.

Maybe it's just the way of the world, but don't then say we can't afford to bail out sick people.

Glancing at the headlines in this morning's papers, it seems there has been a national humiliation. 

I actually give a lot of credence to the EU representatives, who seem to be genuinely surprised that the whole thing was seen as an "ambush".  I don't think they could be bothered to ambush TM, they simply said "No" again and then got on with other matters.  The big story that is not being reported is that the EU actually doesn't care about Brexit, they've got bigger fish to fry.  You guys realise that they gave May 10 minutes  to speak  after dinner?  With no time for  questions or discussions.   Why does anybody find this surprising?  The EU has told us their red lines since well before the referendum.  They aren't going to change their minds because we speak slower and shout.

The real problem is that if the UK is all on it's own, it's actually a minuscule player on the world stage.   It's closest ally, the US , takes pleasure in abusing it whenever possible as shown by Trump's latest visit.  That's a bitter pill for the UK to swallow. 

Blank cheques to banks are smoothing transitions? And it's not really the cheques is it? It is the knowledge that they will be bailed out.

Maybe it's just the way of the world, but don't then say we can't afford to bail out sick people.

Bailouts to prevent crashes that create reverberating shocks to the public and economic collapse... yeah, that’s exactly smoothing shocks & transitions. It’s also part of the QE strategy that is the center of liberal economics. The conservative philosophy is let them fail.

I don’t know what the bailing out sick people bit is about. The conservative philosophy of public health is a modification of the Swiss form.

What I’d suggest is total unlimited healthcare for all is price uncontrollable & free from competition to constrain cost.

Instead, they will ultimately have to shift to an insurance supplemented limited benefit or more Swiss style privatized system.

The US and UK both do this badly, in completely different ways.


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Glancing at the headlines in this morning's papers, it seems there has been a national humiliation. 

I actually give a lot of credence to the EU representatives, who seem to be genuinely surprised that the whole thing was seen as an "ambush".  I don't think they could be bothered to ambush TM, they simply said "No" again and then got on with other matters.  The big story that is not being reported is that the EU actually doesn't care about Brexit, they've got bigger fish to fry.  You guys realise that they gave May 10 minutes  to speak  after dinner?  With no time for  questions or discussions.   Why does anybody find this surprising?  The EU has told us their red lines since well before the referendum.  They aren't going to change their minds because we speak slower and shout.

The real problem is that if the UK is all on it's own, it's actually a minuscule player on the world stage.   It's closest ally, the US , takes pleasure in abusing it whenever possible as shown by Trump's latest visit.  That's a bitter pill for the UK to swallow.

Borders are pretty irrelevant to trade. How many people live on side of an arbitrary line isn’t so critical. Where things are produced at what cost and the cost of logistics to get them to concentrations of consumers (cities) is far more determinative. Governments mostly just get in the way.

The EU isn’t important because of the total population inside it borders. It’s important because it makes policy over many population concentrations with a given buying power. What the EU is principally about is signing lots of deals to freely export its products with minimal resistance, and then erecting high barriers (like food standards that don’t align with the rest of the world) such that its own producers are favored and its really expensive for foreign producers to make customized products for the narrow market versus what they sell to the rest of the globe. It’s quite isolationist in a backhanded sort of way.

The effect of that is to restrain the external customer base for a lot of European producers while driving up costs for internal consumers.

When the US worked this way following WW2, it had overt barriers and produced to the global standard, which resulted in an economic boom and high wages as we rose to true superpower form.

If you look at the UK today, there’s a lot of population in a small footprint with relatively accessible shipping points. The internal infrastructure needs work - highway system sucks, trains... we’ve all dealt with that on the passenger side.

But what I see are high prices and low wages in a highly restrained system. My in laws walk around a grocery in Texas and are amazed at the variety and low prices. That’s a decent indicator of what the UK could be across the spectrum.


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