Migration Figures

Well, non-EU migration is high.  I expect this will create more negative changes....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417

To be honest, I'm surprised when I hear of people moving here while Brexit is looming.  Maybe I'm overly cautious, but this could be a really shitty place to be post-Brexit.   

Well, non-EU migration is high.  I expect this will create more negative changes....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417

To be honest, I'm surprised when I hear of people moving here while Brexit is looming.  Maybe I'm overly cautious, but this could be a really shitty place to be post-Brexit.   

They don't break this down at all though, considering the need to recruit outside the EU for doctors and nursing staff that could be a big chunk of it. Also, I feel like family immigrants may also be trying to move together before things get even worse for them. The numbers alone just show the population entering Britain is unchanged, it doesn't paint any story for why that is.

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Well, non-EU migration is high.  I expect this will create more negative changes....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417

To be honest, I'm surprised when I hear of people moving here while Brexit is looming.  Maybe I'm overly cautious, but this could be a really shitty place to be post-Brexit.   

Maybe for the same reasons you stay in the UK?   

Lets not forget too that the figures are skewed because the UK lists immigramts by their citizenship. Many non-EEA citizens have used EU laws and European Court of Justcie Rulings to be in the UK, but they get put under non-EU migration stats.

Maybe for the same reasons you stay in the UK?   

Huh?  That makes no sense....  I stay in the UK because this is where my life is.  I would not voluntarily move to a country in economic turmoil without a bungee cord back to my old life.

Huh?  That makes no sense....  I stay in the UK because this is where my life is.  I would not voluntarily move to a country in economic turmoil without a bungee cord back to my old life.

Because you have talked about going back to the US a few times and you have a bungee cord.

Have you seen the latest figures for the Eurozone,? Half that of the previous quarter, which were bad anyway. 0.2!! Seen that unemployment in the rest of the EU is twice that of the UK?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46028714


On the chart in your link, the highest numbers of EEA citizens are from the southern and eastern EU countries, where youth unemployment is high; wages are much lower than the UK minimum wage. In some EEA countries, their healthcare is expensive (not as expensive as the US, granted); taxes are higher, welfare payments are lower than the UK (under the present system, which is getting reduced). Some of those are Mediterranean countries which are hit hard by the Euro not working for their country and now they don't have their own currency, they can't address their problems. Some have enforced cuts by Brussels, meaning many are in poverty in those EEA countries. etc....

For interest, you could look up and see how Greece got into this debt and how ther books were cooked for the Euro and see who was behind it.

Then there is the loss to the EU of the UK's billions and the (self inflicted?) problems for Germany are likely going to mean more cuts in money given to the poor EU countries e.g.,. already we know from the next EU budget the CAP is being cut (France is the always the biggest take of this budget) and the Cohesion budget is being cut (Poland presently the biggest taker of this budget) if there is a Brexit. Then there is the UK money loaned to EU countries to build up their country.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-to-cost-european-union-billions-a-1111724.html

Then the dual problem of Brexit and US/ Trump catching out the Germany economy at the same time, not to mention the problems this will cause the Euro. Brussels knew that Germany should have been fined years ago and for every year they run their massive trade surplus as that goes against Euro rules.

https://www.ft.com/content/c06b1762-761d-11e8-b326-75a27d27ea5f

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/german-industry-warns-of-massive-crisis-from-no-deal-brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11584031/Germanys-record-trade-surplus-is-a-bigger-threat-to-euro-than-Greece.html

May's plan will take care of everything.

They don't break this down at all though, considering the need to recruit outside the EU for doctors and nursing staff that could be a big chunk of it.

If "a big chunk" of the 3.8 million EEA citizens who used the EU Free Movement to the UK, and also the hundreds of thousands/millions(?) of non-EEA citizens who have used various EU routes and European Court of Justice Rulings to be in the UK, are doctors and nurses, then why do you think the NHS has still been recruiting?

Last year NHS England had a massive recruitment drive for nurses and these came from countries outside the EEA. So many nurses  arrived from these non-EEA countries that it meant others waiting for a highly skilled work visa (Tier 2 General) were stuck in a backlog for months, if they were not going to be doing a job of the UK's SOL (Shortage Occupation List) or were not going to be earning at about 55k plus. Those doing a job on the SOL and PhD jobs, are always first in line for the limited monthly allocation, the rest went to the highest earners. Some doctors not on the SOL had to wait, or they applied for a doctors job on the SOL instead.

There is a report out somewhere that says that the majority of those using EU routes, don't have the skills to get a work visa. Something Brussels seems to agree with; asking for the UK to keep providing benefits and healthcare to their low skilled workers in the UK as part of any Brexit deal and the same with benefits for their children in another EU country. It almost makes me think the powers that be in Brussels haven't read the UK's new laws.

You know, I'm done commenting in any thread about brexit and immigration. It always comes back to the same attacks on economic migrants and a dislike of immigration even though this is a board for immigrants. Have a good one Sirius, I don't know why you harbor so much distaste for people who work hard and are here for a variety of reasons, the vast majority of which never claim a benefit and then use the health service when they are ill, like all people contributing to society should be able to. We all pay VAT, when working we pay NI and tax, and many also volunteer in the community. You cannot take figures on net migration with no breakdown and extrapolate that to "these are economic migrants abusing UK benefits".

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Because you have talked about going back to the US a few times and you have a bungee cord.

I had no idea!   

Last I checked I worked for a UK company and own multiple properties here.  Definitely a ball and chain in my book.   

Somewhat ironically, one of my major duties for the last 10 years of my work career in the USA was getting visas (and citizenship applications) for our new hires. I don't remember the stats well anymore, but for the last three or so years of my career roughly 70-80% of the people we hired required H1B visas. Most were from the EU, with India, China, and some of the more complicated-to-arrange countries (Iran, Columbia, etc.) smattered in there.  We hired the best and the brightest - regardless of where they were born - because at a research institution that is what you really need to have. There was some complaining from non-selected USA candidates, but I had to give them the party line:  we chose the best, most promising candidates whose research was of the most use to the institution and showed the greatest promise.  Period. Nationality was irrelevant.

I'm rather hoping that trickles down into the mainstream, globally, eventually. But it's only a very small hope.

KfDancer, your bungee cord is soooo obvious.  I expect you'll be whisked away at any minute, like the rapture, leaving a pile of clothes and crying children behind. 

Well, non-EU migration is high.  I expect this will create more negative changes....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417

To be honest, I'm surprised when I hear of people moving here while Brexit is looming.  Maybe I'm overly cautious, but this could be a really shitty place to be post-Brexit.   

Well, in our case, we had been planning the move for years, really. I'd put several things in motion that could not be reversed, so put our hopes in the PM NOT triggering Article 50 until all the nuts-and-bolts had been sorted out, and that would hopefully have been after we arrived. (Silly me, that was thinking too logically - thinking one would work out the impacts BEFORE starting a life-changing undertaking. Apparently things don't work like that in UK politics.) She undercut us by a month, long after we'd passed the "no going back to life as we knew it" point. It was a gamble - sometimes you win, sometimes you don't.

So, plan C would have been moving to New England, which really wasn't ideal but was the only other viable US option on the table at that point. Plan B was carrying on with the original move-over plan, knowing we'd be able to manage here for at least a few years. (Plan D was France, or Portugal.)

We are already well into "Plan B." We've been welcomed here in Scotland. I've only had a couple of unpleasant exchanges, and they were actually with persons from England-south. And two ned delivery guys from Ikea. The northerners (Yorkshire) I've met have been lovely. So... I don't expect the next few years to be as pleasant as the last one has been, fiscally if nothing else. All my income is in dollars, so I'm insulated against the pound tanking. I'll still have to deal with inflation and tax increases. The Daughter, on the other hand, will catch the brunt of it. So we shall see what comes.

We are welcome in Scotland, apparently. We also actually do expect that Scotland will go independent. It's just a matter of when. That is going to be a very challenging environment, when they do.  But my extended family went through a "nation-building" event when Ireland finally became independent from the UK. My grandmother stayed in close contact with the family there, and I've heard the stories.  Sometimes you have to give up a lot to gain more in the long run.  It's always a judgment call you have to make taking all your own particulars into consideration. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

And I'd really not want to spend the rest of my life thinking "what if we had" and regretting not having done it.

It always comes back to the same attacks on economic migrants and a dislike of immigration even though this is a board for immigrants

I've always found on the immigration forums that the minority who are shouting things like racists, xenophobes etc are the people that have brought in the changes to stop the abuse. It’s the same with all abuse, not just immigration and abuse always gets shut down.


 

the vast majority of which never claim a benefit

Then the Welfare Reform laws will not affect these.

As I have told you before-
-it has been years since the UK limited the time allowed for sick benefits,  if they not contributed to the UK.
-there is a time limit of living in Britain before you can apply for the disabilty (in work) benefit and that was brought in years ago too.

Abuse gets shut down

However for the foreign nationals who have contributed to the UK, there are Contribution Based benefits, sick benefits, jobseekers etc, some of which do not have a time limit, but you must have been contributing to the UK to get Contribnution based benefits.  Contribution Based benefits are not Public Funds and these benefits can be claimed even if they do not have  ILR.



The Welfare Reform laws being rolled out, will stop the abuse of the able bodied getting other people to keep them and their families; will stop people from getting more on benefits than they would from working etc These Welfare laws have also struck down European Court of Justice Rulings on UK benefits: cases that were taken to the court by EEA citizens.

.

BUT… None of the changes the UK have brought in, or bringing in, will make a jot of difference to those who don’t claim UK benefits. Nor will it make a difference to foreign nationals who have contributed to the UK, because they can claim Contribution Based benefits.

What I don't understand is how a post about net migration from Europe decreasing but not overall migration set about this conversation. Benefits were not brought up by any of the comments prior to yours.

I agree that these numbers don't give the full picture, more data is needed to understand why overall migration didn't change. If there is a public dataset you know of, please share. I'd be happy to look further and see if I can make some pretty maps and graphs with it.

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What I don't understand is how a post about net migration from Europe decreasing but not overall migration set about this conversation. Benefits were not brought up by any of the comments prior to yours.
 

The UK saying about 10 years ago that "immigration and welfare are two side of the same coin" "the NHS is a national health service and not a world health service" “stopping those who come to the UK to take” and all the changes and new laws, didn’t give you a clue? All The MAC reports? For the EU, changes in the 2004 Directive so that those economically inactive in another country must buy a “Comprehensive Sickness Insurance" to not be a "burden" to the health service of that country? … All the changes the UK has made to the EEA Regs? 10 million more people in the UK but the government taking less in Income Tax than before the numbers rose by 10 million?..

I agree that these numbers don't give the full picture, more data is needed to understand why overall migration didn't change. If there is a public dataset you know of, please share. I'd be happy to look further and see if I can make some pretty maps and graphs with it.

It was predicted that the UK voting to leave the UK would bring a surge as the last of the easy routes to the UK was getting shut. As said, all the non-EEA citizens in the UK on EEA routes and ECJ Rulings, are recorded as non-EU migration, even thought they are only in the UK under EU Regs.

I doubt the UK knows all the numbers of all those in the UK on EU and ECJ rules as unlike aother EEA countries, these are not made to register on arrival. In many other EEA countries,  all those using EU/ECJ routes have to register  with the police.

Perhaps the question should be, why was net migration held at 50k a year for decades up the late 90s, and then suddenly became hundreds of thouands a year? There was free movement then and they could be stamped in/apply immediately for ILR, but only if they worked, but their non-EEA family members were not allowed in and there were no generous benefits  as those only started from 2003. The visas for the highly skilled to enter the UK (Tier 2 General) are only 20,700 a year, plus their spouse and children under age 18.

e.g Would you have been given a visa if the UK still had the Primary Purpose rule - prove that the primary purpose of your marriage was not to obtain British residency? The Primary Purpose rule was removed in the late 90s.