So Gove/Fox leafing a group of 5 inside the cabinet demanding changes.
Merkel and others saying absolutely zero chance of any change, this is best & final.
Assuming no changes can be had, presumably Gove/Fox throw weight behind a challenge.
Unclear there are the votes to depose the PM, might be close, might not, but it’d be a show of force that would remove her practical authority to lead (whatever exist of it). If they don’t have the votes, then she’s protected from another leadership challenge for a year. But her authority is also gutted and would be heavy pressure to resign.
If she survives all that, the EU will vote later in the month. Then it’d come back to the UK.
It doesn’t appear there are the votes in parliament for passage. If the whip count says there are, it seems like DUP is prepared to pull the rug out from under the govt majority and force an election.
I’m not really clear what would happen at that point.
Seemingly the clock would run out without even a vote to approve a deal.
I don’t know if the lame duck PM or an interim could quickly jam together an extension.
I don’t know if labor would take the reigns. That’s certainly Corbyn’s dream scenario. Or what they’d do with Brexit at that late hour other than have an up or down vote.
There effectively is no way to reverse Brexit. It is happening and all the capital on both sides of the channel and both sides of the ocean have already priced that in. A surprise reversal would be the financial crisis all over again. There is the narrowest of possibilities the process to rejoin and leverage for reform could happen after that, depending who is in charge by then.
More likely it looks to be moving towards a blind exit one way or another.
My personal position is in favor of that because it gives the UK the maximum flexibility to control & adapt their own policy when they’re negotiating with the rest of the world who will demand concessions & deliver massive economic opportunities in return.
My position is a trade deal with the EU is the 12th or 15th they should negotiate. Not until the UK is set, doesn’t need the EU at all, only then go to the table. If I’d been in charge, I would have been backdoor negotiating agreements in principle with other countries (the US, China, commonwealth countries) that can be finalized and adopted immediately after exit. I would have been sitting across from the EU saying passporting? This paper says we can passport to America. Free movement? This agreement on immigration says US & UK citizens are entitled to a work visa if they clear a basic background check but won’t be eligible for public assistance. That’s how you negotiate. You don’t go to a table where they think you need them to survive and think you’re getting out of there with what you want. You flip the script with competition for your business and sit back aloof waiting for them to move to your positions. Then you can consider compromises with open eyes to the cost benefit of what the EU wants & has to offer on an issue versus what the rest of the world has. But... I’m not in charge. I wouldn’t want to be either, but it’s frustrating to see the incompetence with which this was handled.
Anyway... the entertainment goes on. Or train wreck continuing to crash. Whichever you prefer.
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