Which country to retire to for fun, culture, nightlife? Ireland,France, Spain?

We live in uncertain times.      (I loathe uncertainty.)

That government report listed three scenarios, and I'm thinking the "Armageddon" variation is probably unlikely. So I am thinking it'll be somewhere between the first two options. Possibly toward the milder one for some aspects, and into the more unfavorable for other aspects. (At least, I hope so! It most definitely is not going to be business-as-usual.)

My guess is that there will be a turbulent period, possibly with occasional severe shortages of some items as supply chains sort themselves out. Consumer prices will go up, especially for food imported from outside the UK, I think. Unless the government steps in and puts caps on price rises (ala Jimmy Carter in the USA during stagflation in the 1970s) prices may spike badly to whatever the market will bear. Whether or not they stay higher will depend on what kind of deals can be made to get them back into the country at previous prices. That will take a bit of time to negotiate, and the prices may or may not go back to current levels.

I've seen some reports that even now UK farmers are having a tough time finding people to harvest their crops, as workers from Eastern Europe who formerly were eager to come here to do that kind of hard, manual labor are no longer lining up to do so. Since local talent doesn't seem interested in filling the labor gap, there will most likely be a knock-on effect as farmers lose crops, and subsequently don't plant as much in future seasons. Unless the government creates some sort of incentive program to bring that labor pool back. And those unfortunate farmers who can't take the financial hit of the lost crops go out of business. So, some foods traditionally available from UK sources may no longer be available in the quantities usually seen, and with shortages one usually sees prices rise.

Energy prices - how dependent on outside fuel is the UK? Has the North Sea oil/gas field petered out, or can it be run back up to a higher production level? I am assuming that even if not, fuel doesn't come in primarily from the EU, but from elsewhere, so that shouldn't be a horrible issue - unless refined fuel comes from the EU? If so, again, a period of turbulence, possible shortages, and it will even itself out. Unless favorable trade arrangements are made, prices may be painful.

What the pound will do? I doubt it will go up. How far it tanks is open to conjecture. At one point I had thought I might move a lot of my savings into pounds. I believe I'm going to leave them sitting as dollars, instead. I'm not wealthy, so I can't take a 'hit' on the exchange rate if pounds do falter and we need to relocate elsewhere. (I am hoping we can stay, but that will depend on the UK government and living conditions. I can put up with a lot of inconveniences, as far as daily living, but if taxes start to skyrocket to prop things up, my budget won't allow us to stay.)

It makes sense for companies that can relocate for their advantage to move out of the UK to an EU country, if the bottom line is that it is more profitable for them to do so. And for entities outside both the UK and the EU to not locate inside the UK if the majority of their business is in the EU. (Bank of America has just decided on Dublin for their new, big, European hub site.)

It's really a shame to see the EU in the current state - it was such a grand experiment and seemed to be working relatively well (as far as these things do). I would hate to see it implode, because in that scenario there will be a lot of people who will end up suffering a lot greater hardships than they're dealing with now.

I have only been here a year, but I've done quite a lot of "people watching" in the aggregate. Based on what I've seen at the grocery stores (panic, hoarding, etc.) from a three-day snow event, I am kind of wincing in advance over what people who have been used to having what they want when they want it are going to be like immediately post-Brexit. And all the finger-pointing that's going to go on.

But, in the long run, as after WWII, things will stabilize and life will go on. Into what sort of conditions it all resolves to remains to be seen.

But it's not the end of the world, regardless.

I doubt you believe that because you and your EU wife have gone to such great lengths to try to stay in the UK after Brexit, as have many other of the millions of EU citizens and their Family Members.

It's the same with those who have moved to the UK/are still moving to the UK, using EU rules since the UK voted to Leave. They hope they will be given the chance to stay in the UK even though they know when they left their country that EU rules will end in the UK.

Instead of hoping Brexit will stop, wouldnt it be better to take legal advice on all the problems you keep creating for yourself?  I suggested that ages ago when the Leave vote came in. And I really hope for your sake, that you haven't carried on doing that.

Legal advice?  I don't think I'm in any trouble.  I just have to wait for Theresa May to define the process for EU residents to continue to live here and do that.  She's a bit late getting it going but I don't forsee any problems. 

I remember that you suggested I get my Permanent Residence Card and that was probably good advice at the time.  Not sure it's necessary at this late stage as it will be invalid the day after Brexit.

I disagree with your argument that because we chose to live here we don't believe the "armaggeddon" scenario is possible.  That wasn't an option being tossed around 17 years ago when we made our decision, and not surprisingly that option was left off the side of the Brexit bus. 

Maybe we can have chocolate rationing again to make all the elderly Brexit voters feel they've got their Britain back.

I don't think the UK economy will fall through the basement. It wouldn't surprise me if the pound were to lose quite a bit of value. Maybe go down to parity with the dollar which could encourage foreign investment. If there wasn't a insane person in the White House maybe the UK would grow closer to America on many levels but to do so right now would be risky because Trump could care less if the UK were to fall apart. I do think a lot of jobs will be lost in Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland do to Brexit. No country's economy can experience a 10% shrinkage and avoid slipping into a recession.

Yeah. And the man-on-the-street is apparently woefully ignorant of the potential outcome. Or, seems to be, anyway. Definitely going to be a bumpy ride for a while.

Yeah. And the man-on-the-street is apparently woefully ignorant of the potential outcome. Or, seems to be, anyway. Definitely going to be a bumpy ride for a while.

Don't worry, the man on the street is slowly being prepped for the impending disaster.  The tone of the Tories is subtly changing from "Everything will be great" to "There's going to be a meltdown but that's just a tiresome detail"
Here's Boris Jhonson secretly recorded, came out just last night:

“You’ve got to face the fact there may now be a meltdown. OK? I don’t want anybody to panic during the meltdown. No panic. Pro bono publico, no bloody panic. It’s going to be all right in the end.”

Nigel Farage is now claiming he never said Brexit would be a success!

I loathe uncertainty.

Yes. It is not good for planning.

But another thing - we are going on three years now of this thing. It will be a decade or more, perhaps a lot more, before it all shakes out.

During this time nothing else is being given attention. 

Legal advice?  I don't think I'm in any trouble.  I just have to wait for Theresa May to define the process for EU residents to continue to live here and do that.  She's a bit late getting it going but I don't forsee any problems.

It wasn't May, she wanted that sorted straight away . It was Merkel who wanted to wait and sort this all later. I assume that was because Merkel was busy fighting for her political career with the elections coming up and the rise of the new extreme right, anti immigration party, Alternative for Germany. Not that it worked, as AfD not only got a seat in the German parliament, but are now the official opposition party and have control of some of the budgets.

As we have read, on the forms to be able to register to remain in the UK, applicants must list their criminal past just as those wanting a visa (UK immigration rules) are required to do. That UK/EU agreement also says that any fraud or abuse on those forms will be a 10 year ban from the UK. A change was brought in to the UK immigration law in January, to allow for this. Before, it was only a 10 year ban to the UK.

Deception on any application, even if that was not used for the citizenship application, is one of the reason citizenship can be removed.
 

I remember that you suggested I get my Permanent Residence Card and that was probably good advice at the time.  Not sure it's necessary at this late stage as it will be invalid the day after Brexit.

That was when you said that UKVI had refused to give you a BRP for an ILR stamp you found in an old passport, with that letter saying that you were in the UK under EU laws via your EEA citizen wife. As I recall, we told you to apply for a BRP as you had been showing an ILR stamp that you found in an old passport, as your right to work in the UK, but we pointed out that since about 2014/5, those with an ILR stamp now need a BRP.

Although the EU says you can work in the UK via your EEA citizen sponsor wife if she is following their 2004 Directive, I suggested getting a PRC (and I think that UKVI letter did too?) to make it easier to show employers that you have a right to work in the UK. If you try to change jobs, then having a PRC might make that easier to show employers that proof.. Employers are naturally trying to avoid the 20k fine that I think was raised from 10k under the Immigration Act 2014 and the up to 5 (or 6?) years in jail that the Immigration Act 2016 brought in, for employing those who don't have a right to work

Edited to remove comment - Leah

It wasn't May, she wanted that sorted straight away . It was Merkel who wanted to wait and sort this all later.

Always the Germans, eh?

Which countries between Ireland, France and Spain do you believe might suffer the most from the Brexit situation?  And what will that entail?

-Ireland said that they think they will be.
-France will also be affected, not only by the cut to the CAP as they have always been the biggest takers of that money, but lots of other things too, e.g. they export more to the UK than the UK exports to them etc.  They haven't balanced their books for decades and are virtually in stagnation, with all the added problems with that Brexit will bring to that, loss of free movement to the UK etc. France and Greece are the only two EU countries to miss their target every year.
-Spain said they will lose 2 billion a year if there is no trade deal. Plus the Mediterranean countries that are in the Eurozone (use the Euro) really suffer anyway. The Euro is based on what suits Germany, which doesn't suit countries that rely on tourism and they should really be allowed to have their own currency to control. The Italians have just elected an anti EU party because of all the problems caused. Spain is a poor country and the rich part, Catalonia, want to leave Spain. Spain have put Catalonia's  leaders in jail.

Do you think the UK economy might be hit the hardest after Brexit? I've been reading a few econ websites and there is the opinion out there that the UK could experience considerable shrinkage of it's economy.

I must be reading this differently to everyone else on here. It seems to me that with a Remain PM and key post of the chancellor a remainer, that from what is being said now is that we aren't really having a Brexit, just a sort of Brexit.

At the moment the talks seem to be pointing towards that we won't get a say in EU rules, but can import from outside the EU as we do now, without countries having  to pay a double digit import tax to the EU coffers? It seems that it is mainly the EU's "Free movement" that is being stopped?

It seems a long way around to just do what other EU countries that are affected by uncontrolled immigration from Free Movement, are already doing/planning to do.
e.g.
-The Swiss public voting to end the EU "Free Movement" to their country. Although being told  by the EU they will be taken to court for that, straight after the UK voted to Leave the Swiss were told that can control these numbers, but the Swiss withdrew their longstanding application to be a full member of the EU.
-Austria will be taking their turn of the EU Presidency soon. One of the coalition parties in their government have asked the other EEA countries to think about whether Free Movement was a good idea.

I guess we will have to keep waiting to see what happens with the Brexit talks.

I think it's a bridge too far for other countries to have control over your internal governing decisions for your nation. That is what makes the European Union problematic. Not to mention the fact that several countries in Europe are losing that definable characteristic of their culture which makes Denmark different from Spain, and the UK different from Ireland. With all the cross boarder traffic many countries in Europe are on their way to being generic.

Friends has done more to homogenise the world than international treaty. The internet. The rationalisation of engineering spec across industries. Commerce.

If you go to the Philippines you will see Nikes and McDonalds.

Pubs are not shutting down because of Brussels.

I think it's a bridge too far for other countries to have control over your internal governing decisions.

That's what has led to the rise in all the Eurosceptic parties in the EEA countries and why these are now getting into government. The people don't get to vote in the decisions makers in Brussels and *Strasbourg and therefore can't vote them out when they keep doing a bad job.

* https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10565686/The-farce-of-the-EU-travelling-circus.html

That's what has led to the rise in all the Eurosceptic parties in the EEA countries and why these are now getting into government. The people don't get to vote in the decisions makers in Brussels and *Strasbourg and therefore can't vote them out when they keep doing a bad job.

* https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10565686/The-farce-of-the-EU-travelling-circus.html

It's understandable. Many people probably feel like their losing their history, and the idea of watching that lost take place right in front of them has to be frustrating. Some people might confuse that deeply held opinion with people that hold bias against immigrants, but it's not the same thing.

You simply want to retain your culture while still being accepting of immigrants but with a reasonable number of candidates. Some of these countries are the size of American states. Their population structure can't invite in 30 million people without changing that nation's culture forever.

As much as I would love to live in the UK it just wouldn't be sustainable for 10 million Americans who want to go there, to be let in. It would no longer be the UK. Brussels is well on it's way to changing the other EU countries in a negative way. The UK might pay a serious economic price for regaining it's freedom by leaving the EU, but 10 years after Brexit it will be worth it.

I remember years before the EU was formed and my thoughts on the idea way back in the mid 1980s. I understood the reason for the formation, and the importance of having a strong counter-balance to the United States' influence. But these many decades later it is safe to say I was correct in thinking that the EU was a bad idea.  Because in truth the conception of one central power base in control over other nations is a soul snatching idea that helps no one but the very poor and that's true only when the world economy is not threatened by difficult times.

They never considered how unpopular it would be for wealthy countries to keep afloat poor countries in world economic melt downs. Nor the highly unpopular idea of losing one's national identity to unwanted uncontrolled immigration. It was flawed from the beginning.

Some of these countries are the size of American states. Their population structure can't invite in 30 million people without changing that nation's culture forever.

All cultures change over time.  Sometimes it's the best thing that could happen to that culture.  For example, before the foreigners came to the UK, the food was terrible and the service was even worse.  I'm thankful for that change.

All cultures change over time.

It's the speed of the change that makes people uncomfortable. A nice steady change that lets people get used to the changes works. If the change is too fast, people just don't cope very well and will resist. I think the EU was just trying to do too much too quickly.....and then with something like the big increase with immigrants/refugees coming up from the south they just couldn't get their act together to come up with a good response when it mattered.